#15,974
Six days ago, in UK: Growing Concerns Over The B.1.617.2 Variant's Impact On Reopening Society, the UK's case count of this recently introduced variant sat at 1313 confirmed cases; a jump of roughly 250% from the previous week's total of 520.
Yesterday the UK released their latest update, and the B.1.617.2 variant case count has jumped again by 260%, to 3424 (as of May 12th).
While the B.1.1.7 (aka `Kent') variant continues to dominate in terms of overall numbers, over the past 2 weeks it has only increased by about 7%, while the B.1.617.2 (aka `VOC-21APR-02') variant has increased by 650%.
Yesterday's report also added a new VUI (Variant Under Investigation) - dubbed the `Yorkshire variant' by the media - and dropped one (VUI-21MAR-01, B1.324.1 with E484K) from their list. Details on this new VUI are scant, but the PHE promises a new technical report later today which may have more information.A growth rate nearly 100 times faster, which is clearly a concern.
I've posted some excerpts from yesterday's update, follow the link to read it in its entirety.
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 variants identified in UK
Latest updates on SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in UK.Last updated 20 May 2021 Latest updatePublic Health England (PHE) releases weekly updates on the number of confirmed new cases of variants of concern and variants under investigation identified in the UK.The dominant variant continues to be VOC-20DEC-01 (B.1.1.7) and PHE will continue to monitor all variants closely. The best way to stop the spread of the virus is to remember: hands, face, space and follow the restrictions in place.
Further rise in VOC-21APR-02 detected and new VUI designatedPublic Health England’s (PHE) latest weekly variant cases data shows that cases of VOC-21APR-02 have risen by 2,111 to 3,424 since last week.Cases are still predominantly affecting the North West of England – particularly Bolton – and London, but we are seeing clusters of cases across the country.There is evidence that VOC-21APR-02 is growing rapidly and may be more transmissible than VOC-20DEC-01, the ‘Kent variant’ that is currently dominant in the UK. Experts at PHE are monitoring the situation closely.In London, PHE is working in close partnership across the health system and with borough council leaders in parts of the city where cases have been identified. A targeted approach is being used throughout the city to target London’s many small dispersed clusters. This includes whole genome sequencing, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, settings-based testing, enhanced contact tracing, self-isolation support, and enhanced vaccine deployment to ensure that second doses for priority groups are brought forward and that maximum uptake is achieved for first doses.In Bolton, more than 33,000 test kits have been given out as part of the surge testing programme, not including tests taken by residents visiting Mobile Testing Units (MTU). Health officials visited more than 9,000 properties during door-to-door visits over the weekend, giving out over 3,400 test kits.In Blackburn with Darwen and Sefton, targeted local testing is underway in response to the rise in VOC-21APR-02, including mobile and drive-through test centres being set up and pop-up tests sites in specific communities. New vaccination centres have opened to boost the delivery of vaccines and additional supply of first doses has been secured.In total, more than 180,000 additional PCR test kits have been deployed to affected areas to make sure everyone who needs a test can get one, and over 170 existing test sites in those areas have been switched to provide PCR test kits – this means tests can be sequenced faster so variant cases are found sooner.Over 150 MTUs have been deployed to provide PCR test kits for those without symptoms in the most affected areas.NHS Test and Trace has activated marketing to let some local communities know if surge testing is happening in their area and to explain how, when and where to get their tests, and enhanced contact tracing is in place for all positive cases and their contacts in areas affected by VOC-21APR-02 to help identify and break any potential chains of transmission. All confirmed cases have been told to self-isolate and their contacts are being identified.So far, more than 20,000 positive samples from the most affected areas have been analysed using the new genotype assay method. In parallel, the majority of positive samples undergo genome sequencing for definitive confirmation of the variant cases.Wastewater monitoring has been increased in affected areas to help identify early warning signals of where variants may be present. Wastewater monitoring can detect the presence of variants in areas where it has not yet been detected through clinical testing. This allows us to notify local decision makers at an early stage so they can take early action to contain the spread of the virus. Where an outbreak has already been detected, wastewater monitoring can provide additional insights into its geographical spread.
(SNIP)
New Variant Under Investigation
A further variant, VUI-21MAY-01, has been designated as a Variant Under Investigation (VUI) by PHE.The variant is from a lineage which was designated a signal in monitoring on 6 May 2021 based on an unusual mutation profile. PHE has been monitoring the variant since April.There have been 49 cases of VUI-21MAY-01 across the country to date, mainly concentrated in Yorkshire and the Humber.There is currently no evidence that this variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective. PHE is carrying out increased laboratory testing to better understand the impact of the mutations on the behaviour of the virus.All appropriate public health interventions are being undertaken, including additional contact tracing and targeted testing. Where cases have been identified, additional follow-up of cases, testing of contacts and targeted case finding will limit the spread of variants.If you have symptoms of COVID-19 you should seek a PCR test as soon as possible. If you are tested positive then you and your household must stay at home and not leave the house for any reason for 10 days.More information will be available in Variant Technical Briefing 12, which Public Health England will publish on Friday 21 May.
This report stresses that:
There is currently no evidence to suggest the vaccines will be less effective in protecting people against severe illness and hospitalisation from VOC-21APR-02.
A statement that, while true, requires a small caveat. There is not a lot of evidence either way.
The CDC's initial assessment (published two weeks ago) suggests potential reduction in neutralization by some EUA monoclonal antibody treatments and Slightly reduced neutralization by post-vaccination sera.
