#15,975
Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't begin for another 10 days, we've seen pre-season storms form in each of the last 6 years. And based on the 8am update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, there's a pretty good shot at extending that streak.
The more robust of the two areas of suspicion is in the mid-Atlantic, and it has an 90% chance of development over the next 5 days. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch (see below), in anticipation of further development.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.
Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Beven/Papin
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st, and runs through the end of November. June climatology suggests most June storms will form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or along the southeastern coast of the United States.
While these storm are apt to be less mature, and generally less destructive, than the long-lived Cape Verde storms of August and September, they usually spin up and threaten the coast with far less advance warning.
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
