#16,037
A couple of days ago, in The Delta Variant's World Tour, we looked briefly at recent reports of a new COVID variant (AY.1) - which is essentially the Delta Variant with the K417N mutation, or B.1.617.2.1) - that first appeared in India in April, and has now been reported in a dozen countries around the globe.
Despite alarming media reports (which immediately dubbed this variant `Delta Plus'), it isn't clear how much of an additional threat - if any - this variant poses over the Delta variant.
Up until Friday, only 11 countries had reported detecting this variant, with the UK and Switzerland leading with 42 and 40 cases respectively. India, where the variant was first discovered, has only reported 6 cases to GSAID (see Pango Lineages Update)
Surveillance, and genomic sequencing being limited, these numbers almost certainly under represent the global prevalence and spread of this variant, so we should not be surprised to see Denmark adding themselves to the list with the following announcement from their SSI.
The first case of the virus variant AY.1, also called Delta Plus, has now been found in Denmark
The case was found on June 21, 2021, and the follow-up variant PCR and subsequent whole genome sequencing found Delta Plus on June 25. This is a passenger on a plane from Portugal.Last edited June 26, 2021
The Delta Plus case is handled, like the other Delta variant B.1.617.2, according to the highest level in the infection detection by the Danish Agency for Patient Safety. Both the passengers in question and the rest of the aircraft's passengers are detected and must be kept in isolation.
No other Delta-AY.1 have been found yet. positive.
More contagious
Delta –AY.1. is characterized by a mutation in the spike protein called "K417N", which is also known from the Beta variant. Delta-AY.1. have been mentioned in association with increased infectivity and decreased efficacy of neutralizing antibodies, but very preliminary data with serum from vaccinated indicate that vaccines work.
Found in other countries
Delta-AY.1. has been present in England sigen 26/4, but there are still only 41 cases of this variant in total. The variant has not increased in England since its discovery.
Cases of Delta-AY.1 have now been found worldwide in several countries.
Not even greater spread than Delta
"At present, there is no indication that Delta-AY.1 is spreading more than the Delta variant without mutation K417N," says Troels Lillebæk, head of department at SSI and professor in the Department of Global Health at the University of Copenhagen. "But we need more data to be able to assess the risk of the Delta-AY.1 variant accurately."
Experts monitor
The health authorities in Denmark have chosen to monitor all positive Corona samples, and a joint SARS-CoV-2 variant risk assessment group has been set up, which continuously assesses all new variants that can be potentially problematic. The variant risk assessment group includes i.a. several expert groups at the Statens Serum Institut, Aalborg University, the Danish Agency for Patient Safety, the Danish Health and Medicines Authority, the Danish Medicines Agency, representatives from clinical microbiological departments and the Danish Regions.
Given the Delta variant's enhanced transmissibility, and ability to evade some antibodies, any possibility of a `new and improved' Delta variant is worthy of our attention. Whether AY.1 has what it takes to be a contender, and can compete with its parental strain, remains to be seen.
The K417N amino acid substitution seen in AY.1 has been seen in other variants - including B.1.351 (Beta) - and is thought might contribute to immune escape. But with the possible exception of the Beta variant, it doesn't seem to have propelled any of the other variants where it has appeared to greatness.
Regardless of where AY.1 ends up in the history of the COVID pandemic, the virus continues to mutate, and churn out new iterations of itself. Most of these will be evolutionary failures - or at least unremarkable compared to what is already out there - and will end up in the dustbin of COVID history.
But as we saw last December with Alpha, followed less than six months later by Delta - given enough throws of the evolutionary dice - a game changer can sometimes emerge.
Stay tuned.
