Monday, June 28, 2021

NHC Eyeing Disturbances Off Southeast US & Central Tropical Atlantic



Although it is still June, the tropics are showing more signs of life as two areas of disturbed weather are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.   The first, off the South Carolina coast, may require tropical storm warnings later today. 

The second may pose a threat to the Leeward islands by mid-week. 

This morning's 8am Tropical Outlook reads:


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 190 miles  east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, is producing a  large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the center. However, any additional increase in organization of the thunderstorm  activity would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical  depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon.  The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the  system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia  by this evening. 
If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few  inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve  Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

While it is uncertain whether either of these systems will reach tropical storm status, the next `named' storm will be `Danny'. 

This year's busy forecast, released in late May by NOAA (see NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season),  calls for between 13 and 20 named storms. How many of those might impact the United States, and of what severity, is unknown.

So if you haven't done so already, plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

You'll find a list of my 2021 Hurricane Preparedness blogs below.