#16,042
The latest epidemiological update on the COVID-19 pandemic from the World Health Organization finds that the number of new cases reported over the past week has increased slightly (2%), and that the two WHO regions that reported increases in their last report (Eastern European & African) are now joined by Europe (up 10%) in this report.
The most dramatic increases continue to come out of Africa, which is up another 34% this week.
Deaths, however, continue to decline globally - with 57,000 reported in the last 7 days - the lowest weekly toll since November 2020. How much of this is due to the global uptake of vaccines, better medical care - possibly diminished virulence in some variants - or simply under-reporting of COVID related deaths by some countries is unknown.
The WHO summary reads:
Data as of 27 June 2021
The global number of new cases over the past week (21-27 June 2021) was over 2.6 million, a similar number compared to the previous week (Figure 1). The number of weekly deaths continued to decrease, with more than 57 000 deaths reported in the past week, a 10% decrease as compared to the previous week. This is the lowest weekly mortality figure since those recorded in early November 2020. Globally, COVID-19 incidence remains very high with an average of over 370 000 cases reported each day over the past week. The cumulative number of cases reported globally now exceeds 180 million and the number of deaths is almost 4 million.
This week, the African region recorded a sharp increase in incidence (33%) and mortality (42%) when compared to the previous week (Table 1). The Eastern Mediterranean and European Regions also reported increases in the number of weekly cases. All Regions, with the exception of the African Region, reported a decline in the number of deaths in the past week.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Brazil (521 298 new cases; 3% increase), India (351 218 new cases; 12% increase), Colombia (204 132 new cases; 5% increase), the Russian Federation (134 465 new cases; 24% increase), and Argentina (131 824 new cases; 11% decrease). Over the past week, the highest numbers of new cases per 100 000 population were reported from Seychelles (708 new cases per 100 000 pop), Namibia (509 new cases per 100 000 pop) and Mongolia (491 new cases per 100 000 pop).
Globally, cases of the Alpha variant have been reported in 172 countries, territories or areas (hereafter countries; two new countries in the past week), of Beta in 120 countries (one new country), Gamma in 72 countries (one new country) and Delta in 96 countries (11 new countries).
Once again, this report's special focus is on the rise, and global spread (see map below), of the 4 VOCs (Variants Of Concern); Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and most notably, Delta.
Although Delta was the more recent arrival, it has already surpassed Gamma in the number of countries reporting cases (n=96) (see The Delta Variant's World Tour).
While the easing of cases over the past few weeks - and the falling death toll - are both encouraging signs, everywhere we see the Delta variant take hold, we are seeing a significant increase in disease transmission.
Over the next couple of months Delta is expected to become dominant across much of the world. How much of an impact that will have will depend largely upon vaccine uptake, vaccine efficiency (VE) against VOCs, and how willing people are to continue to use and practice NPIs (nonpharmaceutical interventions), like face covers, hand hygiene, and social distancing.
The WHO sums up the challenges still facing us with this pandemic:
Special Focus: Current challenges in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
Well into the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global situation remains highly fragile. While at the global level, trends in cases and deaths have been declining in recent weeks, there is significant variation by region, by country and within countries. In all WHO regions, there are countries reporting sharp increases in cases and hospitalizations. There are a number of factors contribute to this, as repeatedly outlined by WHO, 1 including the emergence and circulation of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, increased social mixing and mobility, uneven and inequitable vaccination; and considerable pressure to lift public health and social measures.
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern
On 11 May 2021, WHO designated Delta (B.1.617.2) as a variant of concern due to evidence of increased transmissibility. 2 The increase in the effective reproduction number compared with the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) is estimated to be 55% (95% CI: 43–68). 3 Given the increase in transmissibility, the Delta variant is expected to rapidly outcompete other variants and become the dominant variant over the coming months. 3 As of 29 June 2021, 96 countries have reported cases of the Delta variant, though this is likely an underestimate as sequencing capacities needed to identify variants are limited. A number of these countries are attributing surges in infections and hospitalizations to this variant.
Low vaccination coverage at the global level
While more than 2.65 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered, 4 the majority of these have been in a small number of high-income countries. The gap in vaccine administration between high- and low-income countries is starting to shrink due to the delivery of vaccines through the COVAX facility, but the majority of the world’s population still remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and at risk of developing COVID-19.
Increased social mixing and lifting of public health and social measures
Countries have moved in and out of restrictions of varying stringency over the past 18 months. Now, many face considerable pressure to lift any remaining public health and social measures. Social mixing and mobility are increasing, as are the number of gatherings – from small-scale gatherings of friends and family to large sporting and side events, and religious celebrations. Improper planning or assessment of risk of transmission provide opportunities for the virus to spread.
While the virus will have the final say on when this pandemic ends, we still have weapons to use to blunt its impact.
Assuming we choose to use them.
