#16,067
With apologies because these reports are becoming as repetitive as they are demoralizing, they do serve a purpose, as they remind us what happens when societies ignore the science, and open up prematurely in the face of a new, and rapidly rising pandemic variant.
Today the ECDC announces a 64.3% increase in weekly COVID cases over the last reporting week, and cites relaxations of NPIs and the Delta variant as driving factors.
The good news is, so far at least, is that hospitalization rates remain stable and ICU admissions continue to decline, possibly due to the protection against severe disease offered by the vaccine.
These are trailing indicators, however, and we'll have to watch them carefully over the next few weeks to see if they go up as well.
First the announcement from the ECDC.
SARS-CoV-2 resurgence in EU and EEA related to relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing spread of Delta variant
News story
16 Jul 2021
There has been a 64.3% increase of weekly COVID-19 cases compared to last week, according to ECDC’s epidemic intelligence and TESSy data reported by EU and EEA countries, as of 15 July 2021.
An increasing trend is observed in 20 countries. In the most affected countries, the steepest increases and highest notification rates were reported among 15 to 24-year-olds, with limited increases in persons aged over 65 years. For the latest COVID-19 country overviews, please see the dedicated webpage
At this stage, the reported hospital occupancy rate (the daily occupancy in the last week per 100 000 population) for the EU/EEA overall remains stable. Based on data reported by 24 countries, the rate was 4.2 per 100 000, compared to 5.0 in week 26. This pooled rate has been stable for one week. However, increasing trends are reported in 3 countries.
The ICU occupancy rate for the EU/EEA has been decreasing for nine weeks. Based on data reported by 18 countries, the rate was 0.7 per 100 000 population, compared to 0.9 in week 26. However, increasing trends have been reported in 2 countries.
Two days ago, in a report called EMA and ECDC update on COVID-19, the ECDC warned.
Current COVID-19 situation in the EU
The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) is a variant of concern that is spreading fast in Europe and may seriously hamper efforts to control the pandemic. Evidence suggests it is 40% to 60% more transmissible than the earlier Alpha (Β.1.1.7) variant which was the first major variant of concern in the EU. In addition, the Delta variant may be associated with higher risk of hospitalisation.
ECDC estimates that by the end of August the Delta variant will represent 90 percent of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating in the EU. This makes it essential for countries to speed up vaccination programmes, including delivery of second doses where recommended, and to close the immunity gaps and opportunities for further emergence of variants, as soon as possible.
(SNIP)Other protective measuresOther measures such as mask wearing and social distancing will need to be maintained at a level sufficient to contain community transmission of the Delta variant until more of the populations are fully vaccinated, in order to avoid a resurgence of cases with a possible increase in hospitalisations and deaths. Citizens should follow national advice to protect themselves and others.
Meanwhile the UK appears still on track to abandon nearly all of their social distancing and NPI regulations three days from now, although as that day approaches, the Financial Times reported overnight that Major UK retailers to urge customers to wear masks after July 19.
Yesterday the UK reported 48,553 new cases - the most since mid-January - and this is while some restrictions are still in place.
The gamble is that - because of the vaccine - severe cases won't overwhelm their NHS, and that `Long COVID' won't be a huge factor. Something we won't know for weeks, or perhaps months, to come.
Stay tuned.
