#16,064
The downward trajectory of both cases and deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic - which has encouraged some countries to loosen societal restrictions over the past couple of months - has reversed course, with 5 of the WHO's 6 regional offices reporting increases (see WHO summary below) in the latest reporting week.
Global overview
Data as of 11 July 2021
The global number of new cases reported last week (5-11 July 2021) was nearly 3 million, a 10% increase as compared to the previous week (Figure 1). Following a steady decline for nine consecutive weeks, the number of weekly deaths increased by 3% this week compared to the previous week, with over 55,000 deaths reported.
Globally, COVID-19 incidence increased with an average of over 400,000 cases reported each day as compared to 370,000 from the previous week. The cumulative number of cases reported globally is now over 186 million and the number of deaths exceeds 4 million.
This week, all Regions with the exception of the Americas recorded an increase in incidence. The Eastern Mediterranean Region recorded the largest increase in incidence (25%) followed by European Region with a 20% increase as compared to the previous week (Table 1).The African Region had the smallest percentage increase in incidence with a 5% increase. However, the region recorded a 50% increase in the number of deaths as compared to the previous week. The South-East Asia Region also recorded a significant increase in number of deaths, reporting a 26% increase as compared to the previous week. The Region of the Americas reported a 3% decline in incidence and an 11% decrease in number of deaths reported last week.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Brazil (333 030 new cases; 9% decrease), India (291 789 new cases; 7% decrease), Indonesia (243 119 new cases; 44% increase), The United Kingdom (210 277 new cases; 30% increase), and Colombia (174 320 new cases; 15% decrease). Over the past week, the highest numbers of new cases per 100 000 population were reported from British Virgin Islands (2497 new cases per 100 000 pop), Seychelles (763 new cases per 100 000 pop), Cyprus (673 new cases per 100 000 pop), Jersey (628 new cases per 100 000 pop), and Fiji (490 new cases per 100 000 pop).
Globally, cases of the Alpha variant have been reported in 178 countries, territories or areas (six new countries in the past week), while 123 countries (three new countries) reported cases of the Beta variant; 75 countries (three new countries) reported cases of the Gamma variant; 111 countries (15 new countries) reported cases of the Delta variant.
Much of these increases are due to the rapidly spreading, and far more transmissible, Delta variant which has recently become dominant in the United States, and in on track to do so globally this summer.
In recent weeks we've seen risk assessments from the ECDC (see Threat Assessment On Spread of COVID Variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) VOC) warning against the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of the Delta variant, and from the WHO urging fully vaccinated people to continue to wear face masks.
While the Delta variant is currently our biggest concern, there are others (including Alpha, Beta, Gamma & Lambda) we are monitoring closely.
Some excerpts from the WHO's Global Risk Assessment (bolding mine) follow, but download the full PDF to read it in its entirety.
The global public health risks associated with COVID-19 remain very high. Following a two-month steady decline at the global level, case incidence rates remain high (once again approaching around 3 million new confirmed cases per week) and are increasing in most regions and in many countries. Following a decline in the death rate since the peak registered at the end of April 2021, a slight increase in deaths has been reported this week in comparison to the previous week, with several countries across all WHO regions with low levels of vaccination now reporting sharp increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
As the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to circulate and evolve, emerging variants of interest and concern are being characterised by WHO and partners, to evaluate increased transmissibility and other potential phenotypic impacts. The four VOCs characterized to date (Alpha; Beta; Gamma, Delta) have demonstrated increased transmissibility. The Delta variant has now been detected in at least 111 countries across all six WHO regions in the last two months and has shown higher transmissibility than other VOCs identified to date. The increased transmissibility means that it is likely to become the dominant variant globally over the coming months.
The emergence of more transmissible variants, coupled with the relaxation and inappropriate use of public health and social measures (PHSM) and increased social mobility and mixing, , and low vaccination coverage in many countries , continue to contribute to rapid surges in incidence, hospitalizations and deaths in many countries.
Moreover, in large parts of the world, there remain gaps in epidemiological surveillance, testing, and genomic sequencing, and this limits our ability to monitor and assess the impact of current and future variants in a timely manner.
While almost a quarter (24.7%) of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (over three billion doses administered), there are vast inequities in vaccine distribution and administration with the majority of vaccines administered in a small number of high and upper-middle-income countries. The COVAX facility has been working to reduce this gap, but a large proportion of the world’s population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The breadth and quality of evidence of the efficacy and effectiveness of current vaccines against emerging variants remains limited; nevertheless, the available evidence suggests full vaccination offers high levels of protection against severe disease and death for all four VOCs, with mixed evidence as to the impacts on infection, mild-moderate disease, and transmission. Virus evolution and the phenotypic impacts of all variants, including potential immune escape, require close monitoring and assessment, including the possible need for future adjustments to vaccine composition, vaccination strategies and/or coverage targets.
As tired as we all are after 18 months of dealing with this COVID pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 continues reinvent itself, and shows no signs of fading away anytime soon.
