September 10th is generally considered the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and while there are no named storms on the map, there are 5 areas of potential development, two of which could have impacts on the United States in the week ahead.
Right now, the invest area in the Bay of Campeche has the best odds (90%) of developing into a named tropical depression (or storm), as it moves slowly north along the Texas Gulf Coast (see SWFMD model below), and possibly into Louisiana.
The 8am Tropical weather outlook from the NHC reads:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and are showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system this morning.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
While a strong hurricane appears unlikely from this system, we've seen the destruction by flooding from slow moving tropical storms - like Allison which devastated Houston 20 years ago - and so people in the path should take this threat seriously and monitor its progress.
Less clear is the threat posed by the orange region north and east of the Bahamas, but this time of year it bears watching. Further out, the INVEST area in the eastern Atlantic is a long way off, and unlikely to pose a threat to the Caribbean or the United States before next week - if ever.
But again, models can only see a head a few days, and even then they can be fooled. Given the high ocean heat index, and a cooling Pacific, the next 8 weeks could still be busy.
So, if you live anywhere in (or near) Hurricane country - and you haven't done so already - plan a visit to NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk
