Projected Growth of Omicron in Denmark
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With cases climbing like a homesick angel in both the UK and in Denmark, the latest projections from Denmark's SSI (Statens Serum Institut) have Omicron blowing past Delta in their capital region before the week is over.
Of greatest concern, the projections show the number of daily cases in Denmark quadrupling (> 10,000) over the next week or so. Unless Omicron proves to produce far less severe illness than Delta (hoped for, but not proven), this could quickly overwhelm their healthcare delivery system.Possibly in the next few days.
As of today, Denmark has confirmed 2,471 Omicron cases, but this is undoubtedly an undercount.
The translated press release from the SSI follows.
Omikron takes over
The Statens Serum Institut estimates that omikron will be the dominant covid-19 variant during this week. At the same time, an increasing number of infections of over 10,000 cases per day is expected.
Last edited December 13, 2021
During the weekend, the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) updated the risk assessment of omikron. This is happening in light of the new covid-19 variant's rapid spread in Denmark in recent weeks.
SSI estimates that omikron will become the dominant covid-19 variant in the Capital Region as early as this week. At the same time, an increasing number of infections with over 10,000 daily cases is expected in a short time.
It should be noted that there are significant regional differences in development. Among other things, infection has been seen at major events that affect the infection rates. Therefore, it is more uncertain when omikron will become dominant in the rest of the country.
"An increasing spread of infection in society will entail a high risk of a secondary increase in the number of hospitalizations, especially among unvaccinated and vaccinated debilitated persons," says SSI's CEO Henrik Ullum.
Analyzes indicate that vaccines protect
Based on the new risk assessment, Henrik Ullum believes that it has become even more important to get as many people vaccinated as possible.
“We expect that both the 2nd and especially the 3rd connector protect against serious diseases of the omicron. In addition, new studies from England indicate that the 3rd plug also provides protection against symptomatic infection. Therefore, a quick roll-out of the 3rd plug is absolutely crucial to curb both the spread of infection and not especially the serious course of events in the coming time, ”says Henrik Ullum.
Preliminary calculations only
The report also includes very preliminary model calculations for the possible development in the number of admissions under different conditions.
“It must be clearly emphasized that the model calculations are preliminary and will undergo ongoing internal and external validation and adjustment. When they are presented in their current form, it is due to the time-critical nature of the development ”, says Henrik Ullum.
Among other things, the models do not take into account the faster roll-out of vaccination with the 3rd plug that has been implemented.
In addition, the uncertainties are particularly about whether the omicron spreads quickly because it escapes immunity after the second bite, or whether it is also more contagious (combined effects).
Finally, there are uncertainties about the exact effect of the 3rd plug, and whether the omicron is smaller or as severe as the delta.
All of these uncertainties make it difficult to assess the future burden on healthcare with certainty.
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These are preliminary calculations, and are subject to change. But their scientists obviously believe these are reasonable projections based on the data they currently have.
Assuming these growth projections are even close to being accurate, Denmark (and presumably the UK and Norway) are about to get slammed by their biggest COVID wave to date.
Since hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators, we may not have a very good reading on Omicron's severity and impact for a couple of more weeks. Hopefully early reports of attenuated virulence prove to be accurate.
But in large enough numbers, even a `milder' Omicron variant could prove quite challenging.
