COVID Heat Map - Credit CDC
#16,390
With Delta continuing to surge around the world, and a new, and largely unquantified threat from Omicron building in the wings, it is worth remembering that a little more than two months ago there were many predictions of a gradual winding down of COVID over the winter, hopefully leading to the end to the `pandemic phase' early next year.
Mainstream media headlines appeared, such as:
Is The Worst Over? Modelers Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March - NPR
Experts say the now-waning delta surge may be the last major COVID-19 wave - SalonFormer FDA chief predicts the Delta variant could be the last major COVID-19 surge in the US and be over by Thanksgiving
There were, of course, caveats in all of these reports, but like the sotto voce rapid-fire listing of potential adverse side effects in every pharmaceutical ad, they were greatly minimized in favor of a more optimistic, uplifting message.
Fast forward 60 days, and large parts of Europe find themselves in the throws of their worst pandemic wave to date, and (Delta) case numbers are rising once again in the United States, most prominently in the Northern States (see map at top of this blog).
International travel restrictions - only recently eased after more than a year - are tightening up again due to the Omicron variant (CDC Statement On New Travel Testing Requirements).
We don't know yet how big of an impact Omicron will have - and while I sincerely hope early reports of it producing a `milder' illness prove correct - we need to wait for more data before toasting our luck. We've been fooled before.
A month ago, Delta was so completely in control, that few thought another variant could end its reign. Now, we appear to have a legitimate contender in Omicron, and even if it proves to be less virulent, Omicron isn't necessarily the last COVID threat we'll face.
For now, Delta remains our most immediate concern, although we may be adding a `drifted' H3N2 seasonal influenza to the equation. Omicron is most likely going to be a post-holiday complication for a new year.
What comes after that, well, is anyone's guess.
While I understand the political desire to offer up any shred of `good news' to a pandemic weary public - or to hint at a `light at the end of the tunnel' - there are genuine costs to doing so.
Almost no one where I live (Central Florida) wears face masks in public anymore, many remain unvaccinated against COVID and flu, and some people seem genuinely surprised - and sometimes upset - when they seem me wearing my face mask.
With Delta rising, Omicron already here, and the Christmas Holidays only a couple of weeks away, we should be redoubling our efforts to stop the spread of the virus. Instead, many are acting as if the predictions of last September have come true, and the COVID threat is over.
While I long for the day when that happens, it isn't here yet.
And if we don't take today's threat seriously, that day may be much longer in coming.
