#16,526
Because of Demark's relatively small population (5.8 million), a well-monitored universal healthcare system, and a high degree of testing, Denmark's ability to track the spread of COVID is among the best in the world.The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to evolve, and what we could say about the pandemic's trajectory - even as few as three months ago - has changed due to the emergence of Omicron.
Luckily, while it isn't as effective as it once was in preventing infection, fully vaccinated (and boosted) individuals continue to be far less likely to fall severely ill with COVID, end up hospitalized, or dying.
But of course, the further out into this pandemic we go, and the more mutations that accrue in the virus, the more tenuous the benefits from the original vaccine are likely to become. Monitoring breakthrough infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among the vaccinated (and unvaccinated) become increasingly important.
Denmark's SSI has released a new vaccine breakthrough report, which indicates that while breakthrough infections have continued to rise, hospitalizations appear to have stabilized over the past 3 weeks.
The rapid replacement of Delta by Omicron (BA.1) since late November, and the recent surge in BA.2, have made comparisons with the `Delta phase' of the pandemic increasingly difficult, and so no Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) estimates are provided in this report.
First, the key points from the report, followed by a (translated) summary from the SSI.
Key points
- An increasing number of SARS-CoV-2 infections are observed after completed primary vaccination and after full effect of revaccination. Since the last report the number of breakthrough infections have increased with 139,818 cases after primary vaccinations schedule and 70,811 cases after revaccination.
- The number of COVID-19 related hospital admissions after breakthrough infections has been gradually increasing from week 41 with a steep increase from week 51 to week 52. The number of hospital admissions after breakthrough infections is at the highest level since the beginning of the vaccination rollout, however, it seems the number has stabilized in the last three weeks (week 52 2021 to week 2 2022).
- The total number of COVID-19 related deaths among individuals with completed primary vaccination and revaccination has increased since week 44 and has been stable at a higher level in week 47 to week 52. For the first two weeks of 2022 the number of deaths has increased further.
- The estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infections and COVID-19 related admissions are not included in this report because the latest four week time period cannot be compared to previous time periods where Delta was the dominating variant. Furthermore, the unvaccinated group is now very small and differ from the vaccinated groups, thus, it can no longer be used as reference group in the estimates of vaccine effectiveness.
The SSI Summary follows:
The number of inpatients after breakthrough infection has been stable over the last three weeks
434,803 cases of covid-19 have now been registered in persons with full effect of the primary vaccination course. In addition, 105,271 cases after full effect of revaccination. This is shown by the latest report for breakthrough infections from the Statens Serum Institut.Last edited January 21, 2022
The number of people who become infected with covid-19 even though they have been vaccinated - the so-called breakthrough infections - is steadily rising. But the number of inpatients after a breakthrough infection has been stable over the past three weeks.
This is shown by the latest breakthrough report from the Statens Serum Institut (SSI).
According to the report - which runs until 18 January 2022 - 434,803 cases of covid-19 have now been registered in people with full effect of the primary vaccination course. In addition, 105,271 cases after full effect of revaccination. That is an increase of 139,818 and 70,811, respectively, since the last report two weeks ago.
At the end of 2021, the increase in infection among vaccinated people was primarily driven by the younger age groups. In week 52, an increase was seen in several age groups, including people aged 65 and over. But the infection has been stable in this age group for the past two weeks at a slightly higher level than before Christmas. (see Figure 1).
In addition, there is a decrease in the number of infections after breakthrough infection in people aged 20-29 years.
Number of inpatients after breakthrough infection has stabilized
Despite the continued high number of infections after vaccination, the number of people hospitalized with a breakthrough infection has been stable over the past three weeks.
The fact that the number of inpatients is stable indicates that vaccination and revaccination also provide good protection against serious illness, even though the omicron variant is now dominant. However, the fact that the infection is increasing among the older age groups may mean that the number of inpatients will also increase.
The revaccinated now make up the largest proportion of deaths
The number of deaths after a breakthrough infection has been steadily increased in the weeks 47-52 2021, but at the beginning of 2022 there has been an increase to a slightly higher level.
During the same period, revaccinated people accounted for an increasing proportion of deaths following breakthrough infections. This is a consequence of the fact that an increasing proportion of the older age groups in the same period have been revaccinated.
The revaccinated now make up the largest proportion of deaths after a breakthrough infection.
Vaccine efficacy
In this week's report, the statements on vaccine efficacy are deleted. This is because the introduction and spread of the infection with the omicron variant has taken place over a very short period of time.
Thus, the period of the last four weeks is not comparable with the previous calculation periods, where the delta variant was the dominant variant.
In addition, the unvaccinated now form such a small group that they are not comparable to the vaccinated. Therefore, they can no longer be used as a reference group in the calculation of the RE estimates.
Read more
Read the new breakthrough report (pdf).
With the majority of Denmark's population fully vaccinated, and the highest risk populations (elderly, immunocompromised, etc.) likely to have received the booster shot as well, it is not surprising that the number of deaths among the vaccinated continues to rise.
The elderly, and those with comorbidities, are at a higher risk of hospitalization and/or death than younger healthier people, regardless of their vaccination status.
With Denmark likely transitioning from BA.1 to BA.2, it will take a few more weeks before we can see where these trends are headed. The vaccine obviously isn't perfect, and it grows less so over time, but it still appears to provide significant protection against severe illness and death.
And right now, that is still a benefit very much worth having.
