Monday, March 28, 2022

China: Shanghai Begins Biggest COVID Lockdown in 2 Years

    

Location Shanghai China

#16,659


If you look at China's Daily COVID report from their National Health Commission, the number of `confirmed' cases has dropped markedly over the past 10 days, from 3,602 confirmed cases on the 14th to 1275 cases today. Buried much deeper in their latest report are 5,134 new cases of asymptomatic infections, which they track separately. 

Shanghai - China's largest city (pop. 26 million) reported only 50 `confirmed cases' today, but accounts for more than half the country's asymptomatic cases (see translated report below).

The city object reported this morning (28th): At 0-24:00 on March 27, 2022, there were 50 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and 3450 cases of asymptomatic infection, of which 17 confirmed cases and 2833 asymptomatic infected people were found in isolation and control, and the rest were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups. There were 10 new confirmed cases of imported COVID-19 and 4 cases of asymptomatic infection, all of which were found in closed-loop control.

It isn't entirely clear how China defines `asymptomatic' cases, as this is an extraordinary high ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases. It seems likely that the term `asymptomatic' may include `mildly' symptomatic. 

In any event, Shanghai has become a hotbed of COVID, and local officials have ordered a two-phase lockdown to allow for city-wide testing. Shanghai's Pudong financial district and nearby areas will be locked down first, beginning today.

Businesses not considered essential have been ordered to close, the city has been effectively sealed off, public transport has been suspended, and people have been ordered to remain in their homes except for when they go to get tested. 

The following (translated) notice was published today on the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission website.

In order to curb the spread of the epidemic, protect the life safety and health of the people, and realize the dynamic clearing of the social aspect as soon as possible, based on the results of the previous rounds of nucleic acid screening and the evaluation and judgment of experts, the Municipal Leading Group for the Prevention and Control of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic has researched and decided. Starting today, a new round of nucleic acid screening will be carried out across the city. 

Through a new round of screening, risk points will be excluded, the transmission chain will be cut off, and the spread of the epidemic will be curbed as soon as possible. The general public is requested to support, understand and cooperate with the city's epidemic prevention and control work, and participate in nucleic acid screening in an orderly manner according to the notification requirements of the street community or unit. We will optimize and adjust epidemic prevention measures according to the epidemic situation. Thank you to the general public for your understanding, support and cooperation!

Even in the face of Hong Kong's recent failure to contain the virus, Mainland China continues to bank on the idea that tactics that worked well against the original Wuhan strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus will remain effective against a much more transmissible Omicron BA.2 variant.  

Shutting down China's largest, and most prosperous city is a huge gamble. 

It is worth noting that China locked down Jilin Province 2 weeks ago (see China Puts Millions More Under Lockdown (Jilin Province, Dongguan City) As COVID Spreads), yet today's report from Jilin shows a higher number of cases than on the 14th (n=895).

From 0-24:00 on March 27, there were 1,086 new local confirmed cases in the province (1,079 mild cases, 6 ordinary cases, and 1 severe case), including 706 cases in Changchun City (including 120 asymptomatic infections turned into confirmed cases). ), 367 cases in Jilin City (including 80 asymptomatic infections turned into confirmed cases), 11 cases in Siping City, 1 case in Liaoyuan City (asymptomatic infections turned into confirmed cases), and 1 case in Songyuan City; new local asymptomatic cases  
 
The stakes for China are very high, as there are genuine concerns that China's community immunity against COVID may be very low, China's vaccine may not provide much in the way of protection against Omicron, and many of their elderly have not been vaccinated or boosted.  

The next few weeks should be crucial in China's fight against COVID.

Stay tuned.