#16,612
While the final act of the COVID pandemic has yet to be written, there are hopeful signs that much of the world may be in for a respite, as cases - and deaths - at least outside of the Western Pacific region, have dropped markedly in the past few weeks.
Whether we are seeing the last hurrah of the pandemic - or are merely in-between waves - is something we won't truly know for months to come. But many countries are taking advantage of this lull to return to something akin to `normal'.
But the world remains a dangerous place - even more so than before the pandemic - giving us plenty of reasons to use this break to prepare for whatever comes next.
While the obvious low hanging fruit for a preparedness essay is the war in Ukraine, and the specter of another prolonged `Cold War' with a nuclear-armed Russia, not all threats to your safety and security are that far-reaching or catastrophic.
Here in the United States we are entering our spring tornado season - which varies in intensity from year to year - but can be quite destructive (see It Happens Every Spring (2021 Edition)).
Tornado Alley - Dixie Alley
And there will always be floods, ice storms, blizzards, derechos, droughts, and heat waves that can disrupt, and endanger, the lives of millions.
2014 Update To The USGS Seismic Risk Map
A `drought' that the SSA (Seismological Society of America) has warned is unprecedented in the geologic history of California going back a millenium, and unlikely to continue. Of course, the seismic threat extends far beyond California, with the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii, and the New Madrid region all particularly vulnerable.
Not all threats are terrestrial.
Our sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle, over which time solar activity (sunspots, flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), etc.) build to a maximum, and its magnetic field reverses, and then tapers off to a low activity minimum.
The following NOAA graphic shows the suns progress over solar cycle 24 between 2010 and 2020.
The sun hit its last solar maximum peak in 2014, and had been growing quieter with each passing year. That is, until a little over a year ago, when we started seeing increased signs of solar activity.
Between our growing dependence on highly vulnerable satellites and electrical grids - and reports that our planet's magnetic field continues to weaken (see ESA Swarm probes weakening of Earth’s magnetic field) - there are concerns that we are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of a major solar storm.
During the last solar cycle, the earth had a `near miss' with a CME, that had it hit, could have done extensive damage to large segments of the world's electrical grid. This is a plausible, high impact threat that FEMA and NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) take quite seriously.
Seven years ago, in NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012, we looked at just how close the earth came to having the worst day in modern memory. A report, and a 4 minute video, from NASA follow:
Such extreme solar events were once thought to occur only once every few hundred years, but scientists have discovered that these severe solar storms happen far more often (See Destructive Solar Storms Usually Hit Earth Every 25 Years or So, Say Scientists).July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.
Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.
A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012. Play it
While you may dismiss these `big-ticket' disasters as unlikely, there are plenty of lesser reasons to be prepared.
Add in the potential for supply chain failures - either due to some of the disasters mentioned above, political upheavals, or future waves of the pandemic - and it makes a lot of sense to use the next few months to replenish our emergency supplies, and review our disaster plans.
Even though I live in hurricane country, and that is undoubtedly my biggest threat to life and limb, I endeavor to prepare for `all hazards', not just hurricanes. And not just for major disasters, since smaller emergencies are far more common.
Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard. Preparedness can not only make that process possible, it can make it less miserable as well.
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do.
