Tuesday, March 16, 2021

It Happens Every Spring (2021 Edition)

#15,867


The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast calling for a moderate risk of severe storms  (wind, hail, tornadoes) across the deep south today, and an enhanced risk further east tomorrow.

While not the highest level alert, if you live or work in the warned area, you should remain alert for deteriorating conditions.

Thus far, the number of tornadoes  in 2021 is a bit below average this (see chart below), but tornado season often doesn't get started in earnest until late March or April.


Tornado seasons vary wildly, and while some years can be relatively mild, others can be devastating. In 2011 - over a period of three days (Apr 25th-28th) - a storm system of epic proportions generated  351 confirmed tornadoes across five southern states, killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

Before and after imagery depicting tornado damage in the vicinity of the intersection of 15th St. E. and McFarland Blvd. E. in southeast Tuscaloosa, AL.

This was the the third deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. History. More than a dozen of these twisters reached intensities of 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale, which can produce near total devastation.
All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these tornadic storms, and while more common in the spring and summer, they can happen anytime of the year. 
The strongest generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type.

Tornado Alley   -   Dixie Alley

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur here are actually less than in other areas of the country.    
DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes.  Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.
Which is why every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.
Having a safe place to go in your home during a tornado can be life saving.  A basement is best, but an interior hallway or windowless room may provide some protection as well.
Tornadoes and hurricanes aren't the only severe weather threat. During the summer of 2012, a powerful Derecho swept across the Mid-Atlantic states (see Picking Up The Pieces), killing 15 and leaving nearly 4 million people without power, some for more than 2 weeks.
While 15 people died during the storm, at least 32 more died of heat-related illnesses in the two weeks that followed (see 2013 MMWR: Heat-Related Deaths After an Extreme Heat Event — Four States, 2012, and United States, 1999–2009).

Last August, a Derecho swept across the Midwestern United States (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin & Indiana) causing billions of dollars worth of damage, power outages that lasted weeks, and 4 fatalities.

And as a Floridian I am more than aware that we are only 75 days from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season, although the worst storms aren't expected until later in the summer.

Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster. Even with a safe room, family members could become separated (they may be sent to different hospitals or shelters) in the post-disaster chaos.
Some may be injured and unable to provide information about their families.
So it is important to set up a plan, including meeting places and out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards -  before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

 
While progress is being made, the future course, duration, and impact of our COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain. What we can assume is it won't happen in a vacuum. Other disasters - such as we saw in Texas earlier this year (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis), will undoubtedly occur. 

Facing those challenges with a modicum of preparedness - and a solid coalition of friends, relatives and/or neighbors - will go a long ways towards making it easier.

For some recent preparedness blogs to help get you prepared for whatever may come, you may wish to revisit:

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of wherewhen, and how bad.