Thursday, April 14, 2022

Shanghai Sets New Record For `Confirmed' COVID Cases As Xi Doubles Down

 

Location of Shanghai, China

#16,693

Seventeen days ago China's largest metropolitan area - Shanghai (pop. 26 million) - was placed under strict lockdown when daily `Confirmed' COVID case reached 50.  `Asymptomatic' cases  in the city - which China tracks separately -  reportedly reached 3450 cases on March 27th, although the criteria they are using to differentiate between the two is far from clear. 

The lockdown - which was supposed to last a little over a week - is now in its 3rd week, as cases continue to rise.  There are reports of food shortages, protests, and a crackdown (see Reuters `Shanghai vows punishment for COVID lockdown violators as cases hit 25,000') on on-compliant residents.

Today's daily report from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission shows more than a doubling of confirmed cases over yesterday's report (n=1,189). 

The Municipal Health and Health Commission notified this morning (14th): From 0 to 24:00 on April 13, 2022, there were 2,573 new confirmed cases of local new coronary pneumonia and 25,146 asymptomatic infections, of which 114 confirmed cases were previously asymptomatic infections. 2,200 confirmed cases and 24,548 asymptomatic infections were found in isolation and control, and the rest were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups. 1 new case of imported asymptomatic infection was found in closed-loop control.

This spike in `confirmed' cases comes just 3 days after the  U.S. Consulate Ordered The Departure Of Non-Emergency Staff from Shanghai.  Although the bulk of Mainland China's cases are reported from Shanghai, today's report from China's NHC indicates almost 450 additional `confirmed cases' were reported across China yesterday, with the majority of those in Jilin Province

The latest situation of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic as of 24:00 on April 13
Release time: 2022-04-14 Source: Office of Health Emergencies

From 0 to 24:00 on April 13, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3,020 new confirmed cases. Among them, 21 were imported cases (6 in Guangxi, 5 in Sichuan, 4 in Fujian, 3 in Yunnan, 1 in Beijing, 1 in Jiangsu, and 1 in Guangdong), including 3 who were converted from asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases (Sichuan 2, and 1 in Fujian); 2,999 local cases (2,573 in Shanghai, 325 in Jilin, 47 in Guangdong, 9 in Zhejiang, 9 in Fujian, 7 in Heilongjiang, 4 in Shanxi, 4 in Henan, 3 in Jiangsu, and 3 in Hainan) 3 cases, 3 cases in Yunnan, 2 cases in Hebei, 2 cases in Anhui, 2 cases in Shaanxi, 2 cases in Qinghai, 1 case in Beijing, 1 case in Liaoning, 1 case in Jiangxi, 1 case in Shandong), including 344 cases from asymptomatic infection to Confirmed cases (214 in Jilin, 114 in Shanghai, 6 in Fujian, 4 in Zhejiang, 3 in Hainan, 2 in Guangdong, and 1 in Hebei). No new deaths were reported. No new suspected cases were reported.

China also reported an additional 1,245 `asymptomatic' cases across the country in this latest reporting period, although it isn't known how complete these numbers truly are.  Meanwhile, China's President Xi Jinping appears committed to his "dynamic COVID clearance" policy. 

This report from the VOA. 

 

The costs of maintaining strict lockdowns in Shanghai (and other major Chinese cities) are enormous - and while doing so has likely prevented even larger outbreaks over the past few weeks - it also hasn't brought about a resolution to the epidemic. 

Exactly what the endgame is here isn't clear.  

Perhaps Xi is stalling for time, in hopes that warmer spring weather will help mitigate the spread of the virus. Or he may actually still believe (or is being told by his people) that the virus can still be stopped by doubling down on his `Zero-COVID' policies. 

What is clear is that China doesn't regard the `milder' Omicron virus as benign, and is willing to go to extreme lengths to prevent its spread.   

Part of that may be due to the suspected lack of protection afforded by China's Sinovac COVID vaccine, although there may well be other scientific concerns as well. No one really knows what will happen should Omicron suddenly have access to 1 billion (presumably) immunologically naive hosts. 

What happens in China over the next few months could be pivotal in the course of the pandemic. 

Stay tuned.