Avian Flu Diary: NHC Watching The Tropics - NOAA SPC Issues Moderate Severe Storm Risk For Upper Plains

#16,793

Although the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane season doesn't begin officially for another 2 days (June 1st), the National Hurricane Center has designated an area of the western Caribbean as having a moderate chance of tropical development later this week.

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:

A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of
this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains will be possible across southern
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through the
week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Currently long range models don't do much with this system (assuming it develops), beyond bringing rain to Southern Florida and the Bahamas. Unless and until it develops a defined center, models aren't terribly predictive, so Gulf Coast residents should watch for any developments.

Meanwhile our spring/early summer severe weather season continues, with NOAA SPC (Storms Prediction Center) issuing a moderate risk forecast (4 out of 5) for the upper plains today.

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...

Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the central Plains today into tonight. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a couple of intense long-track tornadoes. .

..Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes Likely Today Across Parts of Northeast South Dakota, Far Southeast North Dakota and Western and Northern Minnesota...

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Although you can receive weather alerts on your cell phone, every home should also have a NOAA weather radio as a backup, in case local cell towers are down due to a storm. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

Having a safe place to go in your home during a tornado can be life saving. A basement is best, but an interior hallway or windowless room may provide some protection as well.

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.