#16,842
Normally during the first month of the Atlantic Hurricane season, we see relatively few tropical systems develop - but when they do - they almost always emerge in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or close to the Atlantic seaboard (see map below) where ocean temperatures are the highest.
 |
| June Areas of Tropical Storm Genesis - Credit NOAA |
But those conditions gradually change as the summer progresses.
June hurricanes have a reputation for being mild, short-lived, and less dangerous. But there have been some notable exceptions.
- Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the only June storm in modern history known to reach CAT 4 strength, and it claimed 550 lives after it made landfall in eastern Texas and western Louisiana
- Category 1 Hurricane Agnes (1972), caused relatively little damage when it made landfall in Florida, but caused extensive inland flooding several days later in the Mid-Atlantic states, claiming 113 lives in New York and Pennsylvania.
- Slow moving tropical storm Allison - in June of 2001 – proved more than deadly producing 55 fatalities and causing in excess of $9 billion in damage to Southeast Texas - primarily due to its torrential rains.
- In 2010 Hurricane Alex – a strong CAT 2 hurricane – slammed into Mexican state of Tamaulipas after intensifying to hurricane strength on June 29th.
While not exactly unheard of, it is rare to see the potential development of a tropical system in the far eastern Atlantic before late July or August. All of which makes this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC worth noting.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.Forecaster Berg
While the (very preliminary) forecast models keep this system a low rider, and unlikely to affect the United States (see below), this system could impact the Windward Islands next week, and potentially Central America after that.
Some models suggest this system could develop into a major hurricane, although it has a lot of ocean to cross before it would affect any land.
Although we saw a similarly positioned storm (Elsa) form last year in late June, this doesn't happen often. You have to go back to the record setting hurricane season of 1933 to find another like it. That year, before satellite coverage, 6 Major Hurricanes (and 14 lesser storms) were reported.
While none of this guarantees we'll see another record setting hurricane season, it is concerning to see conditions favorable for tropical development this far east in the month of June.
While I'll be doing hurricane related blogs this summer - and I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page - your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
