CDC Nowcast: BA.5 > 80% Of All U.S. Cases

 

#16,902

The ascension to dominance of Omicron BA.5 continues this week, with nearly 82% of all U.S. cases attributed to BA.5 (and BA.5.x sublineages), while BA.4 (and its sublineages) remains steady at 12.9%. 

BA.2.x - which was the king of the viral hill just a few weeks ago - continues to shrink, contributing just over 5% of all cases. 

All indications show that BA.5 (and BA.4) are more likely to evade prior immunity than earlier variants, meaning that even those who have (even recently) recovered from the virus - or have received their booster vaccination - may be at risk of infection.

That said, vaccination (and boosters) - along with prior infection - are still expected to reduce the severity of COVID illness. 

Still, we are seeing a steady rise in hospitalizations in countries where BA.5 has become dominant, likely due to the sheer number of new infections.  While not as severe as Delta, BA.5 is far from benign, and worth avoiding. 

Although the FDA recently tasked vaccine manufacturers with releasing an updated COVID booster with a BA.4/5 Spike Protein component this fall, the big unknown is whether BA.4/5 will even be circulating then - and if not - what will replace it. 

Many have pegged BA.2.75 as the next heir apparent, but it is far from the only contender.  Time will tell.  In the meantime, the CDC's NOWCAST estimates for 7/23/22 follow:

Note: Surveillance, testing, and genomic sequencing are limited (and variable) around the country, so Nowcast numbers should be viewed as rough estimates. 

Given what we know about the often devastating effects of `long COVID', recent evidence of risks to unborn children in the womb from maternal infection, and a report (Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection) suggesting that successive reinfections with COVID can lead to higher all-cause mortality, anything you can do to reduce your risks is worth considering. 

While a lot of people are obviously tired of wearing them, face masks can provide an extra layer of protection against COVID (and other respiratory viruses), and may help reduce your viral load even if you are infected. 

Even though I'm fully vaccinated, and topped off with my 2nd booster last month, I'm continuing to wear a face mask in public, carry (and use) hand sanitizer, and avoid crowds when possible. 

But even with those added  precautions - given the enhanced immune escape properties of BA.5 -  I expect I'll need a bit of luck to avoid infection.   

And with new COVID variants, and a potentially severe flu season ahead, I don't expect to be able to change my routine anytime soon.