The Tropical Atlantic - Quiet For Now
After last week's spurt of activity (2 named storms; Bonnie & Colin) the Atlantic and Caribbean have gone quiet again, and no new systems are expected to develop over the next few days.
On average, we don't normally see our first named Atlantic storm until July 9th and our first hurricane until mid-August (see chart below) - so going into July with 3 tropical storms in the books, we find ourselves well ahead of the curve.
But we know from history, that we are just getting started into Hurricane season, and there will be much more to come.
While it is impossible to predict how active the next 30 days will be, in May NOAA issued their initial Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, calling for a Busy 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different') - our COVID-19 pandemic isn't over - and can still complicate nearly every aspect of hurricane season, including evacuation, staying in shelters, and even the time it will take for communities to restore utilities and provide disaster relief after the storm.
Although the exact number and location of tropical systems are impossible to predict, we do know that as summer progresses, the waters of the Atlantic continue to get warmer and more conducive for cyclone formation.
July tropical systems tend to form in the Eastern Caribbean, The Gulf of Mexico, or off the Southeastern Atlantic coastline of the United States. While not usually as powerful as the storms of Aug-Sep-Oct., their close proximity to land can cut down the amount of warning time.
You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.