#17,032
Overnight Hurricane Ian underwent an eyewall replacement, and emerged stronger (140 mph) for it, now only 18 hours or so from landfall in Southwest Florida. While this new trajectory largely spares the Tampa Bay area from a devastating hit, Ft. Myers, Port Charlotte, and Venice are not going to be so lucky.
Since Ian is expected to slow to a crawl as it approaches landfall, this is likely to be a long-duration event (up to 24 hours) for many people. Rain totals are likely to be extreme, and with the ground already soaked by summer rains, inland flooding is going to a problem.
Power outages are likely to be extensive, even far from landfall, as tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center (see map below). Spin up tornadoes are also possible as the storm makes landfall.
First the 5 am KEY MESSAGES from the NHC.
For those in the direct path of this storm, this is a life threatening event, and even for those farther removed, the impacts (inland flooding, days without power, empty store shelves, etc.) are likely to be significant.
To put Ian's size into perspective, it has been raining heavily for several hours where I live (just north and east of Tampa), and the storm is still 190 miles to my southwest. It should pass 40 miles to my east, as a greatly weakened CAT 1 storm, in about 24 hours.
Given the soaked ground, and the winds predicted, I fully expect the power to be out here for several days or longer. While I no longer need to `bug out' for safety reasons, my `Disaster Buddy' and evac destination has asked me to come anyway, because I'm better prepared (see Hurricane Preparedness: Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages) for a prolonged grid down scenario.
So I'll be loading my car with my bug out supplies, and leaving in a few hours. But this time, I'm pretty confident I'll have an intact home to return to in a few days, which makes me far luckier than my fellow Floridians further down the state.
I'll have my laptop with me, and will try to post some blogs, but may be hampered by power and/or internet outages. I'll try to get word to Sharon Sanders at FluTrackers (who is also in the path) on our status on Thursday.
In the meantime, I highly recommend you check FluTrackers and CIDRAP News for the latest infectious disease news, and I'll catch you on the flip side.
