#17,029
This morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded Ian to a CAT 1 Hurricane as it steams northwesterly towards the western tip of Cuba and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the tracking map above illustrates, in 72 hours Ian is expected to be a major hurricane and knocking on West Central Florida's door.
The map below shows the 5 am watches and warnings, and while the hurricane watch only extends from from north of Englewood to the Anclote River (including Tampa Bay) that will likely be expanded further northward later today.
Even though we are only 3 days from a possible landfall (4 days, if Ian stays off the coast), there is still a wide divergence between the models, with the GFS HWRF, and HMON staying further west, and tracking towards Appalachia Bay. The UKMET and ECWMF bring the storm ashore either at, or just south of, Tampa Bay.
A shift of even a few miles east or west of the projected track could make a huge difference in the impacts to the Tampa Bay area.
Regardless of its exact path, Ian is expected to be a major hurricane with an expanding wind field as it approaches Florida, and widespread power outages, coastal (and inland) flooding, and wind damage can be expected across a wide swath of the peninsula.
If you live in (or even near) the path of this storm, you should be checking your local (county) EOC (Emergency Operations Center) often for local evacuation information and guidance, and be preparing for Ian's arrival.
The Key Messages from the NHC this morning read:
Since I live well within the cone, I'm preparing to `bug out' to a safer location (ironically, closer to the coast, but in a much more substantial building) - probably on Wednesday morning - and so my blogging may be a bit limited for the next couple of days.
There is a very good chance I'll be without internet, or power, for some time after the storm passes. How long will depend on the exact path this storm takes, and how strong Ian is when he arrives. But I expect several days to a week or longer.
Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, but has managed to avoid a direct hit by a major hurricane for more than 100 years (1921). Hopefully we'll get lucky again.
Stay tuned.
