Europe's Recent Rise In COVID Cases - Our World In Data
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Although we've seen some subtle signs of increased COVID activity in Europe the past few weeks (see Denmark: SSI Reports Fall Increase In COVID Cases & Hospital Admissions), in most countries surveillance, testing, and reporting of cases has been greatly scaled back, making comparisons with previous waves difficult.
Even with these limitations, the latest chart (above) from Our World In Data shows a steep rise in cases in a number of European nations, with Austria, Germany, and France leading the charge.
Cooler, less humid weather, more indoor gatherings (without masks), and new variants are all probably contributing to this surge. While it is far from clear how much of an impact this autumn wave will have - with seasonal influenza expected to return as well - many doctors are warning of a rough fall and winter ahead.
Since increases in COVID in Europe have often presaged similar outbreaks in North America, and around the world - usually a month or two later - we'll be watching events there closely.
In the meantime the EU Health Commissioner, WHO, and ECDC have issued a joint statement (Oct 12th) on this recent upward trend, urging people to get vaccinated. I'll have a brief postscript after the break.
Joint Statement by Commissioner Stella Kyriakides, WHO Regional Director for Europe Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge and Director of the ECDC Dr Andrea Ammon: working together towards COVID-19 and seasonal influenza vaccinations for this winter
"Although we are not where we were one year ago, it is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is still not over. We are unfortunately seeing indicators rising again in Europe, suggesting that another wave of infections has begun. With the arrival of autumn and winter, the resurgence of influenza can also be expected. In light of this, we reconfirm the need to protect people's health, especially the most vulnerable, using all the available tools, including vaccination. Preparedness measures need to continue in the European Region, we should not let our guard down.
The potential co-circulation of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza will put vulnerable people at increased risk of severe illness and death, with the likelihood of increased pressure on both hospitals and healthcare workers, already exhausted from almost three years on the frontlines of the pandemic. We need to avoid the burden of this co-circulation on our healthcare systems. Together with public health measures, vaccination remains one of our most effective tools against both viruses. We urge countries in the European region to prioritise protecting the most vulnerable groups by co-administering influenza and COVID-19 vaccines whenever feasible.
Millions of people across the Region have still not been vaccinated against COVID-19. European countries should make every effort to reach the unvaccinated, making sure that they get their COVID-19 vaccine doses whilst also rolling out booster doses to priority groups, in line with national recommendations. Many of those most at risk of severe COVID-19 are also at high risk of experiencing a serious influenza infection. It is important that the following priority groups get vaccinated against both influenza and COVID-19: healthcare workers, people over 60 years old, pregnant women and those with comorbidities and/or underlying conditions.
The Southern Hemisphere, where winter recently ended, experienced an early and highly active influenza season. While we do not know exactly what to expect in the WHO European Region, we may see a similar scenario in the Northern Hemisphere during autumn and leading into winter. This means we need to be ready and act now. Our message is simple: vaccination saves lives. It decreases chances of being infected and reduces the risk of severe consequences from COVID-19 and seasonal influenza. There is no time to lose. We encourage everyone eligible, especially the most vulnerable, to come forward as soon as possible for both COVID-19 and influenza vaccination”.
Background
To help countries prepare their response to a likely increase of COVID-19 and influenza in the coming months, the Commission published a Communication on preparing for autumn and winter 2022-2023. WHO/Europe also issued strategy recommendations to protect the most vulnerable. Together, the documents call on countries across the European region, which covers 53 countries across Europe and Central Asia, to relaunch mitigation efforts and be ready to respond to an increased burden on their healthcare systems.
Although increased number of cases is worthy of our attention, the `real world' indicators of greatest concern we'll be watching are the number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.
Today Japan's government issued new guidance asking people aged 12 to 64 with a low risk of complications, to avoid going to `fever clinics' and to `recuperate at home' as they prepare to deal with a potential “twindemic” which could see up to 750,000 people infected (with COVID, flu or both) each day during its peak.Last year, we saw numerous hospitals invoke Crisis Standards of Care as their facilities were overrun with Delta and Omicron cases, and there have been new warnings about the ability of the UK's NHS to cope this winter.
While it may be good politics to declare the pandemic to be `over', the real test will come this winter, when we see how well our healthcare delivery systems function in our `new normal'.
Stay tuned.
