#16,404
While researchers, politicians, and internet pundits continue to debate the severity of the emerging Omiron variant, the Delta variant continues to surge both here in the United States - and in many other countries - and is being increasingly backed up by seasonal influenza.
Meanwhile hospitals around the country - some of which have been under siege for months - continue to struggle with overwhelmed ERs, increasing admissions, and growing staff shortages which has forced many to adopt Crisis Standards of Care.
We explored the impact of this declaration in The Realities Of Crisis Standards Of Care a few months ago, but in short it can mean hospitals are allowed - under certain dire circumstances - to ration care (including access to ventilators, ICU beds, etc.), invoke DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) protocols (see Standards Of Care During A Pandemic: CPR & Cardiac Arrest), and even turn some patients away.
Even if Crisis Standards of Care are declared, the situation will be very fluid, with the ability of individual EMS services, hospital ERs, and ICUs to provide care changing by the hour. And these problems will affect everyone seeking healthcare, not just those with COVID.
Earlier this fall, hospitals in the western states were under the greatest pressure (see here, here, here, and here) - and many continue to work under Crisis Standards of Care conditions (see New Mexico hospitals remain in 'grave situation' as COVID-19 cases continue to increase).
Increasingly, though, we are seeing reports from northern states of Delta surges, and hospitals trying to cope. A few headlines from the past couple of days include:
COVID hospitalizations: Pa. healthcare system at 'brink of collapse,' doctor says
Three Northeast states deploy National Guard amid medical capacity crisis due to pandemic
Michigan hospitals in crisis with record number of COVID-19 patients: "We don’t have room for furniture anymore."
According to the latest COVID NOWCAST from the CDC, Delta still accounts for 99% of all COVID in the country - and influenza rates, while climbing, remain low - meaning these problems have occurred without the added burden of Omicron or flu.
Even if Omicron proves to be `milder' for most people - or is attenuated by the vaccine - its increased transmissibility could still be enough to put many healthcare delivery systems over the edge.
That is the fear in Europe right now (see Denmark: Health Authority Warns On Potential Overwhelmed Hospitals This Winter Due To COVID/Flu), which is seeing much higher rates of COVID than the United States, and is currently seeing a huge increase in Omicron cases.
But we are probably only running a few weeks behind Europe.
Add in a drifted' H3N2 influenza virus, and a potentially less effective flu vaccine this year (see MMWR: Influenza A(H3N2) Outbreak on a University Campus — Michigan, Oct–Nov 2021), and you have all the ingredients needed for a truly challenging start to the new year.
If you haven't gotten your vaccines (COVID & Flu), now is the time to do so. That, along with wearing face masks in public, avoiding crowds and other types of risky behavior, are the best things you can do to stay healthy, and out of the hospital this winter.
