A Late Season Storm Threat For the East Coast

#17,107


Even though the Atlantic Hurricane season runs through the end of November, tropical storm formation after Halloween is fairly rare.  But as we've seen (see 2011's Something You Don’t Normally See In April . . .), even out-of-season hurricanes are possible. 

This morning the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two regions in the Atlantic that are likely to develop into tropical or subtropical systems over the next few days. 

The system located in the mid-Atlantic is unlikely to affect land, but the one forming between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may threaten Florida, and the eastern seaboard, later this week. 

Although most of the models show this disturbance moving towards Florida later this week, they are in less agreement over the track (South Florida vs North Florida or even Georgia) and intensity.  

Some have the system crossing the peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, while others have it racing up the eastern seaboard.  Unless and until this system develops a well defined center of circulation, models will struggle to agree on its path. 

While a major hurricane seems unlikely, those living in the path of this storm will want to monitor its progress, and be ready to act if it should intensify significantly. The NHC advises:

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week.

If you live in the path of this proto-storm, now is a good time to visit NOAA's National Hurricane Preparedness web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe should it come your way.

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow and trust Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this system, your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.