Last month, in The NERC 2022-2023 Winter (Electrical Grid) Reliability Assessment, we looked at forecast from that agency warning `. . . that a large portion of the North American bulk power system is at risk of having insufficient energy supplies during severe winter weather.'
Although regional, and even national disasters can come in many forms - hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, and even solar storm - the common denominator for most people will be a temporary, but potentially lengthy, loss of electricity.
Beyond the loss of lights, fans, heaters, and air conditioners - without power - ATMs and gas pumps won't work, credit/debit cards may not work, wells and municipal water supplies may be offline, and grocery store shelves will be wiped clean in hours.
To those of us who live in hurricane country, prolonged power outages are a rare - but miserable - fact of life. But nowhere in the country is exempt, tornadoes in the Midwest - earthquakes, wild fires, and `red flag days' in the western states - and equipment failures anywhere can lead to a extended grid down situation.
And between our aging electrical infrastructure and increasing power demands, matters are likely only to get worse.
Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their most recent report (2021) warns that our cumulative GPA for infrastructure sits at only a C-, and two of our most vulnerable infrastructures are drinking water and the electrical grid (see When Our Modern Infrastructure Fails).
For Energy, which they rate as a C-, they warn:
Overview
In a digital, connected world, Americans increasingly rely on readily available and uninterrupted electricity. Over the last four years, transmission and distribution and reliability-focused pipeline investments have increased, and outages have declined slightly. Annual spending on high voltage transmission lines grew from $15.6 billion in 2012 to $21.9 billion in 2017, while annual spending on distribution systems — the “last mile” of the electricity network — grew 54% over the past two decades. Utilities are taking proactive steps to strengthen the electric grid through resilience measures.
However, weather remains an increasing threat. Among 638 transmission outage events reported from 2014 to 2018, severe weather was cited as the predominant cause. Additionally, distribution infrastructure struggles with reliability, with 92% of all outages occurring along these segments. In the coming years, additional transmission and distribution infrastructure, smart planning, and improved reliability are needed to accommodate the changing energy landscape, as delivery becomes distributed and renewables grow.
In December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
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What is a catastrophic power outage?• Events beyond modern experience that exhaust or exceed mutual aid capabilities
• Likely to be no-notice or limited-notice events that could be complicated by a cyber-physical attack
• Long duration, lasting several weeks to months due to physical infrastructure damage
• Affects a broad geographic area, covering multiple states or regions and affecting tens of millions of people
• Causes severe cascading impacts that force critical sectors—drinking water and wastewater systems, communications, transportation, healthcare, and financial services—to operate in a degraded state
(Excerpt From Dec 2018 NIAC Report)
https://poweroutage.us/https://poweroutage.us/
Five years ago, in DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report - August 2017, we looked at a 45-page report addressing urgent cyber threats to our critical infrastructure that called for `bold, decisive actions'.
While these NIAC reports concentrate on deliberate cyber or physical attacks on the grid, there are other plausible ways the grid could fail, and the outcome would be every bit as bad (or perhaps, even worse).
Perhaps the most worrisome is a `Carrington-class' Solar storm.According to NASA, we actually came very close to seeing it happen in 2012 (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012). We've a report and a 4 minute video from NASA explaining earth's close call, then I'll return with more.
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012
July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.
Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave juThe Gift of Preparednessst as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.
(Snip)
A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012.
The 11-year solar cycle expected to peak in the next 2 or 3 years, and severe space weather is viewed as a legitimate threat (see USGS: Preparing The Nation For Severe Space Weather).
Regardless of how it happens (natural or deliberate), or the scale (local, regional, national), our fragile power grid is the Achilles heel of our nation, and our economy.
While some scenarios - like an EMP attack - are frankly too overwhelming for the average person to prepare for, there are plenty of less severe grid down scenarios that can be partially mitigated by a modicum of individual preparedness.
Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard. Preparedness can not only make that process possible, it can make it less miserable as well.
If you are sitting in the dark this weekend, you have few options other than making do with whatever you already have. But this won't be our last natural disaster or widespread power outage, and we can take steps in the new year to ensure we are better prepared for the next one.
For some ideas about how to prepare, you may wish to revisit my blog:
For other preparedness ideas, you may want to revisit:
The Gift of Preparedness
