#17,158
Yesterday China announced a new, 10-point COVID mitigation policy (see China: NHC Announces Modified COVID Testing & Mitigation Rules) that relaxes - but doesn't eliminate - their controversial, long-standing Zero-COVID policies.
While undoubtedly welcomed by the hundreds of millions of people who have been living under draconian lockdown, quarantine, and testing mandates for nearly three years, this change - which came after weeks of escalating public protests - comes at a price.
China's 1.4 billion people have had relatively little exposure to the coronavirus, and their domestic vaccines only provided modest protection against the original COVID strains, and are almost certainly no match for the newer Omicron subvariants.
The expectation is that now that China has relaxed some of their Zero-COVID rules, the virus will spread rapidly through this largely immunologically naive population, potentially overwhelming their healthcare delivery system.
Although Omicron has a reputation for being `milder' than earlier variants, how much of that attenuation is due to virus, and how much is due to acquired immunity from exposure to the virus or from vaccines, remains to be seen.
Today Hong Kong, which has followed many of Beijing's `recommendations' on controlling COVID, has announced an easing of some of their COVID mitigation policies, adjusting isolation, quarantine and testing requirements.
The city of Hong Kong - which has less than 1% of the population of the Mainland - has reported more cases (2.1 million) and deaths (10,860+) from COVID than all of China (1.8 million, 5200+). Unlike China, HK has also embraced the use of mRNA vaccines, although uptake among the elderly isn't optimal.
All of which makes Hong Kong - on paper at least - less vulnerable to a severe rebound epidemic than the mainland.
Today - with the CHP reporting more than 14,000 COVID cases over the past 24 hours - the HK government released two (translated) press releases on the proposed changes (excerpts follow).
Government adjusts isolation, quarantine and testing arrangements(Continue . . . )
The government announced today (December 8) that from tomorrow (December 9), persons diagnosed with COVID-19 who have a negative rapid antigen test on the fourth and fifth day of isolation can complete the test as early as the fifth day isolation. As for the close contacts of the confirmed cases, if the rapid tests conducted every day during the five-day quarantine period are negative, they can complete the quarantine on the fifth day and do not need to take another test. The daily rapid antigen test for people arriving from Taiwan or overseas regions has also been adjusted to the fifth day after arriving in Hong Kong.
Under the current arrangement, confirmed persons who have not been vaccinated or who have received only one dose of the new crown vaccine must be quarantined for 14 days. After two days of negative rapid test results, the quarantine was completed early. As for close contacts of confirmed persons, they are required to undergo 14-day quarantine, but close contacts who have received at least two doses of the new crown vaccine can complete the quarantine earlier after obtaining negative results of the rapid test on the sixth and seventh days.
In response to the latest epidemic development and risk assessment, and taking into account the experience of shortening the quarantine period for specific groups, the Government has decided to adjust the arrangements for isolation, quarantine and testing applicable to all people (regardless of their vaccination status) as follows:
- In principle, the quarantine period for a confirmed person is still 14 days, but if the confirmed person is tested positive on the fourth and fifth day (the day following the test or receipt of the sample is the first day; if there is no record of the test or receipt of the sample, then The day when the test result notification is received is the first day) to conduct a rapid antigen test and obtain a negative result, then you can report the test result on the fifth day and complete the quarantine early. If at least one of the rapid antigen tests has a positive result, the confirmed person must perform a rapid antigen test on any two consecutive days after the quarantine period and obtain negative results and declare the test results before completing the quarantine.
The above arrangement will take effect at midnight tomorrow (December 9). The above arrangements for completing isolation and quarantine early are also applicable to isolation and quarantine orders that have been issued before the effective date but are still in force. For example, if the first day of the quarantine order for a close contact falls on December 5, if the rapid antigen test conducted by the person concerned (regardless of their vaccination status) on December 8 and 9 yields negative results, They can complete the quarantine on December 9. As for the confirmed persons, if the first day of the quarantine order falls on December 5, if the rapid antigen tests conducted by the persons concerned (regardless of their vaccination status) on December 8 and 9 are all negative, they can go to the The quarantine was completed early on December 9, but if a positive result is obtained on December 8 and a negative result is obtained on December 9, the quarantine must still be continued on December 9. If the rapid antigen test is carried out on December 10 If the test results are negative, the quarantine can be completed early on December 10. The Government will publish relevant announcements on the above arrangements in the Gazette.
- The quarantine period for close contacts has been adjusted to five days. Close contacts are required to undergo rapid tests every day during the quarantine period. If they obtain negative results in the daily rapid tests, they can complete the quarantine on the fifth day. If any of the test results are positive, the relevant person must report to the Department of Health immediately.
Social distancing requirements, which are reviewed and renewed every two weeks, remain in place until at least the end of the month. Face masks are still required in most public settings, and most large gatherings in public places are still prohibited.
Government maintains existing social distancing measures
The Government announced today (December 8) that in response to the latest epidemic situation, the current social distancing measures will continue until December 28 after they expire on December 14.
Recently, the epidemic situation in Hong Kong has shown signs of recovery. In the past week (that is, from December 1st to December 7th), the number of new cases per day hovered between 9,000 and more than 11,000. The 59 154 cases in one week (ie November 24 to November 30) increased by 20.3%. The number of patients infected with the new coronavirus who need to be hospitalized has further increased, but the ratio of critical or severe cases to hospitalized cases has remained roughly stable, and has not increased significantly due to changes in the epidemic situation.
After balancing the above-mentioned public health risks and the needs of social and economic activities, the government believes that there is no room to relax social distancing measures at this stage, and has decided to maintain the current social distancing measures in the next 14-day cycle.
Considering that the epidemic situation may undergo new changes after winter, the government will continue to closely monitor the development of the epidemic situation, and review whether social distancing measures can be properly adjusted in each 14-day cycle in the future, with a view to maintaining the operation of the public medical system in the process of returning to normal in Hong Kong .
Details of the restrictions in force under the Prevention and Control of Disease (Requirements and Directions) (Business and Premises) Regulation (Cap. 599F) between December 15 and December 28 are set out at Attachment, specific measures include:
But COVID cases on the Mainland were rising despite their strict Zero-COVID policies while the public's tolerance was growing increasingly thin, pretty much forcing Beijing's hand.
Whether the spread of COVID across Mainland China represents the last hurrah of the pandemic, or marks the start of a new phase, is anyone's guess. Either way, whatever happens over the next few months has the potential to impact the entire globe.
Stay tuned.
