#17,157
Ten days ago, in China At The Pandemic Crossroads, we looked at China's struggles to maintain its controversial Zero-COVID policies in the face of mounting public protests, huge economic losses, and the arrival of increasingly difficult to control Omicron variants.
As a result of little community transmission for nearly three years, and limited uptake of a less-than-spectacular COVID vaccine, community immunity to COVID is expected to be very low in China.
While remarkably effective against earlier strains of COVID, China's hard-line Zero-COVID policies have struggled against the more transmissible Omicron variants. Although the numbers provided by China are suspect, the first real breach occurred in March of this year (see chart below), which was followed by a few months of better control, before the most recent surge.
Today, faced with the diminishing effectiveness of their costly and hugely unpopular Zero-COVID policies, China's National Health Commission issued a 10-point modification of their COVID mitigation plan. While not exactly the end of `Zero-COVID' - mask wearing, testing, lockdowns and isolation will still continue - this does represent a `more targeted' and less draconian approach..
First the (translated) announcement, after which I'll return with a postscript.
Notice on Further Optimizing and Implementing the Prevention and Control Measures of the New Coronary Pneumonia EpidemicRelease time: 2022-12-07
Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism General Issue [ 202 2 ] No. 113
All provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' joint prevention and control mechanism (leading group, headquarters) in response to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and the member units of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council in response to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic:
Recently, all localities and departments have thoroughly implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council , adhered to the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, implemented 20 optimization measures, and continued to rectify the problem of overweight at every level, achieving positive results.
According to the current epidemic situation and virus mutation, in order to prevent and control the epidemic more scientifically and accurately, and effectively solve the outstanding problems in the prevention and control work, we hereby notify the following matters concerning the further optimization and implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures :
The first is to scientifically and accurately divide risk areas. Delineate high-risk areas according to buildings, units, floors, and households, and shall not arbitrarily expand to areas such as residential areas, communities, and streets (townships). All forms of temporary blockade shall not be adopted.
The second is to further optimize nucleic acid detection. Nucleic acid testing for all employees is not carried out according to administrative regions, and the scope and frequency of nucleic acid testing are further reduced. According to the needs of epidemic prevention work, antigen detection can be carried out. Nucleic acid testing will be carried out for employees in high-risk positions and personnel in high-risk areas in accordance with relevant regulations , and other personnel are willing to undergo exhaustive inspections. Except for special places such as nursing homes, welfare homes, medical institutions , childcare institutions, and primary and secondary schools, no nucleic acid test negative certificates are required, and health codes are not checked. Important agencies, large enterprises, and some specific places can determine the prevention and control measures by themselves. Nucleic acid test negative certificates and health codes will no longer be checked for cross-regional migrants, and landing inspections will no longer be carried out.
The third is to optimize and adjust the isolation method. Infected persons should be admitted and treated in a scientific manner. Asymptomatic infected persons and mild cases who are eligible for home isolation are generally isolated at home, or they can voluntarily choose centralized isolation for treatment. Strengthen health monitoring during the home isolation period. On the 6th and 7th day of isolation, two consecutive nucleic acid tests with a Ct value ≥ 35 will be released from isolation . If the condition worsens, it will be transferred to a designated hospital for treatment in time. Close contacts who have the conditions for home isolation are subject to home isolation for 5 days, or they can voluntarily choose centralized isolation , and the isolation will be released after the nucleic acid test is negative on the fifth day .
The fourth is to implement "quick sealing and quick release" in high-risk areas . High-risk areas with no new infections for 5 consecutive days must be unblocked in time.
The fifth is to ensure the basic needs of the masses for purchasing medicines. Pharmacies around the country must operate normally and must not close down at will . The online and offline purchase of over-the-counter drugs such as antipyretic, cough, antiviral, and cold treatment shall not be restricted .
The sixth is to accelerate the vaccination of the elderly against the new crown virus. All localities should adhere to the principle of receiving as much as possible, focus on increasing the vaccination rate of people aged 60-79, accelerate the increase in vaccination rate of people aged 80 and over, and make special arrangements. Optimize vaccination services by setting up green channels for the elderly, temporary vaccination sites, mobile vaccination vehicles and other measures . It is necessary to carry out training on the identification of vaccination contraindications level by level, and guide medical staff to scientifically determine vaccination contraindications. Detailed popular science publicity, mobilize the whole society to participate in mobilizing the elderly to vaccinate, localities can adopt incentive measures to mobilize the enthusiasm of the elderly to get vaccinated .
The seventh is to strengthen the investigation and classification management of the health status of key populations . Give full play to the role of the "network bottom" of grassroots medical and health institutions and the "gatekeeper" of family doctors' health, and find out the elderly suffering from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, tumors, immune function deficiency and other diseases in the jurisdiction and the vaccination status of the new crown virus, and promote the implementation of hierarchical and classified management.
The eighth is to ensure the normal operation of society and basic medical services. Non-high-risk areas shall not restrict the flow of people, and shall not suspend work, production, or business. Medical personnel, public security, transportation and logistics , commercial supermarkets, supply guarantees, water, electricity , heating and other personnel who guarantee basic medical services and normal social operations are included in the "white list" management, and relevant personnel do a good job in personal protection , vaccination and health monitoring to ensure normal operation. Provide medical services, basic living supplies, water, electricity, heating , etc., try our best to maintain the normal production and work order, solve urgent problems raised by the masses in a timely manner, and effectively meet the basic living needs of the masses during the epidemic response period.
The ninth is to strengthen the security guarantees related to the epidemic. It is strictly forbidden to block fire exits, unit doors, and community doors in various ways to ensure that the public's access to medical treatment, emergency escape , etc. is unobstructed. Promote the establishment of a docking mechanism between communities and specialized medical institutions to provide convenience for the elderly living alone, minors, pregnant women, disabled people , and patients with chronic diseases. Strengthen the care, care and psychological counseling for closed personnel , patients and front-line staff .
The tenth is to further optimize the school epidemic prevention and control work. Schools in all regions must resolutely implement scientific and precise prevention and control requirements. Schools without epidemics must carry out normal offline teaching activities, and supermarkets, canteens, stadiums, and libraries on campus must be open as normal. Schools with epidemics must accurately delineate risk areas, and normal teaching and living order must still be guaranteed outside the risk areas.
Relevant departments in various places must further improve their political positions, unify their thinking and actions into the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, adhere to the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, implement the 20 optimization measures, implement the requirements of this notice, and resolutely correct the simplistic, "one size fits all" ", layer upon layer, etc., to oppose and overcome formalism and bureaucracy, and take strict and detailed measures to protect people's life safety and health to the greatest extent, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
State Department Response to Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia
Comprehensive Group of Epidemic Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism
December 7 , 2022
The $64 question is what happens next.
Daily case counts were already rising under the old COVID restrictions, and it is likely that cases will rise even faster now as these new policies are implemented. COVID hospitalizations and deaths are almost certain to rise, perhaps dramatically, and that could overwhelm local healthcare delivery systems.
But other possibilities include:
- New, potentially more dangerous Omicron recombinants may emerge, which could revitalize the pandemic both in China, and around the globe. It is even possible that we could see another major antigenic leap in the virus, such as we saw with Omicron a year ago.
- Many rural Chinese live in close proximity to farm animals, which could provide additional routes for SARS-CoV-2 to spillover into other species, again with unpredictable results (see WHO/FAO/OIE Joint Statement On Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 In Wildlife & Preventing Formation of Reservoirs).
- China's economy, and by extension - much of the world's supply chain - could suffer for months to come should a major epidemic shut down manufacturing.
While China is undoubtedly hoping for a `soft-landing', they are likely see some very challenging months ahead. Whether their government can endure that without reverting to their more restrictive polices remains to be seen.
