#17,208
Even though the United States - and arguably, the rest of the world - are already facing one of the most transmissible COVID variants (XBB.1.5) we've seen thus far, the abrupt cessation of reporting from China's NHC late last month on their growing epidemic has many nations both worried, and highly displeased.
Over the past week we've seen numerous nations impose new testing requirements on arrivals from China - and in at least one case (see Morocco Bans All Travelers From China Due To COVID) - enact a complete ban.
To be completely fair, just about every nation has substantially reduced testing, surveillance, and reporting on COVID over the past year in an calculated bid to reduce public concern, and return society, and the economy, to normal.
A laudable goal, but a policy fraught with considerable risk.
While no country is deserving of gold star for transparency, when graded on the curve, China comes near the bottom of the list. As challenging as XBB.1.5 is likely to be, concerns over what may be brewing behind closed doors in China have nations scrambling.
Today the ECDC released the following press statement on their preparations for dealing with whatever may come out of China.
How representative these (roughly) 500 sequences truly are - from a country presumably seeing millions of new cases every day - is the $64 question. But it is more than we had before.The good news is, in late December China reportedly began depositing more SARS-COV-2 sequences in GISAID EpiCoV, and so far, no new variants have been detected.
Impact of surge in China COVID-19 cases on epidemiological situation in EU/EEA
News story
3 Jan 2023
The number of COVID-19 cases has reached a record high in mainland China, peaking on 2 December 2022. In the past three weeks, incidence has fallen, likely also due to a lower number of tests being carried out, resulting in fewer infections being detected.
ECDC, together with the EU/EEA Member States and the European Commission has increased its monitoring activities and will revise risk assessments and adjust actions if needed. ECDC is working closely with the World Health Organization (WHO)/Europe and WHO/Headquarters and is in regular contact with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) and major CDCs globally.
ECDC continues to routinely monitor and report on emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant threats via its Strategic Analysis of Variants in Europe (SAVE) Working Group, where variants and epidemiological trends in countries neighbouring China as well as in the EU/EEA will continue to be evaluated.
The number of COVID-19 cases has reached a record high in mainland China, peaking on 2 December 2022. In the past three weeks, incidence has fallen, likely also due to a lower number of tests being carried out, resulting in fewer infections being detected. There continues to be a lack of reliable data on COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, deaths as well as Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity and occupancy in China. High levels of SARS-CoV-2 infections and increased pressure on healthcare services in China are expected in the coming weeks due to low population immunity and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
China has started depositing SARS-CoV-2 sequences in GISAID EpiCoV[1] in higher numbers. From 1 to 30 December 2022, China has deposited 592 sequences, out of which 540 sequences were being deposited this week (from 25 December to 30 December 2022). As of 30 December 2022, of the total 592 sequences submitted from China, 437 had recent sample collection dates between 1 and 24 December 2022 in GISAID EpiCoV.
These sequences mainly belonged to the lineages (including their sub-lineages) BA.5.2 (35%), BF.7 (24%), BQ.1 (18%), BA.2.75 (5%), XBB (4%), BA.2 (2%). In addition, from travel related cases, the variants BA.5.6, BA.4.6, BM.4.1.1 and BA.2.3.20 have also been detected to be circulating in China. No new variant has been detected.
The variants circulating in China are already circulating in the EU, and as such are not challenging for the immune response of EU/EEA citizens. In addition, EU/EEA citizens have relatively high immunisation and vaccination levels.
Given higher population immunity in the EU/EEA, as well as the prior emergence and subsequent replacement of variants currently circulating in China by other Omicron sub-lineages in the EU/EEA, a surge in cases in China is not expected to impact the COVID-19 epidemiological situation in the EU/EEA. This is based on the information available as of this week, and the ECDC assessment, as detailed in Communicable Diseases Threat Report of week 51, remains currently unchanged.
[1] Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) is a global scientific platform that provides open access to influenza virus sequence data and related information. Emerging Pandemic Threats – COVID-19 (GISAID EPICOV) is a sub-database within GISAID that specifically focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic.
As concerned as I am over what what may - or may not - be happening in China right now, the truth is surveillance, testing, and reporting of infectious diseases has deteriorated badly around the globe over the past 3 years (see Flying Blind In The Viral Storm).
As a blogger, my visibility of infectious disease threats around the world is at its lowest point in the past 17 years.
The next big public health crisis could just as easily come from the Middle East, South America, Africa, Europe, or our own back yard. And it could come just as easily tomorrow as it could 10 years from now.
The emergence of a severe pandemic was The Most Predicted Global Crisis of the 21st Century, and yet we were woefully unprepared for it.
Governments often talked a good game, but mostly kicked the preparedness can down the road (see WHO: Survey Of Pandemic Preparedness In Member States, foolishly counting on the next pandemic to hold off for another year.
Which is a miscalculation we can ill afford to make again.
