Thursday, March 02, 2023

SPC: Moderate Risk Of Severe Weather Across ArkLaTex Today



#17,323

While April and May are normally known as severe weather producing months across the Southland, this year we've seen an unusually early start, with 220 tornadoes reported during the first two months of the year (see chart below).


This, compared to 2022 which only saw 48 tornadoes over the same time period, and 2021 which saw even fewer (n=26).  While unusual, this isn't the earliest start to tornado season we've seen. In 1999, 214 tornadoes were reported in January alone. 
All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these tornadic storms, and while more common in the spring and summer, they can happen anytime of the year. 
The strongest generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type.

Tornado Alley   -   Dixie Alley

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur there are actually less than in other areas of the country.    
DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes.  Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.
Today much of the deep south is under the gun again, as NOAA's SPC (Storms Prediction Center) has issued a moderate (4 of 5) risk of severe weather today across parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, with lesser risks forecast into Mississippi. 

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...

..SUMMARY... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears likely across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions today into tonight. Widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all expected. A few long-lived, intense tornadoes are possible.

For most Americans, a severe weather event is their biggest regional disaster threat; hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, blizzards, Derechos, and ice storms affect millions of people every year. Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster.

It is important for your plan to include emergency meeting places, out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

As a Floridian I am more than aware that we are only 3 months from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season - and while the worst storms aren't expected until later in the summer - I'll review my hurricane preps in May.  

Before I need them. 

For some recent preparedness blogs to help get you prepared for whatever may come, you may wish to revisit:

Because it's not a matter of `if' another disaster will strike . .  . 

It's only a matter of wherewhen, and how bad.