#17,450
While `big ticket' threats like avian flu are currently garnering most of the headlines, old scourges - like Whooping Cough (Pertussis), Scarlet Fever and IGAS, a wide array of NPEVs (Non-Polio Enteroviruses), and Measles - continue to resurface, sometimes after acquiring genetic changes.
Although many of these diseases were largely suppressed over the past few years - in part due to COVID mitigation efforts - now that the masks have come off, they are beginning to flourish once again.
With MMR vaccination rates at their lowest level in more than a decade, this past week the UK's Health Security Agency issued a risk assessment on the potential for seeing a major measles epidemic (40K-160K cases) in the city of London.
Since London is an international city - and epidemics have a nasty habit of spreading via travelers to other regions - what happens in London could easily affect other parts of the world.
London at risk of measles outbreaks with modelling estimating tens of thousands of cases
UKHSA modelling suggests that, unless MMR vaccination rates improve, London could see a measles outbreak with tens of thousands of cases.
From:UK Health Security Agency Last updated 14 July 2023 — See all updates
Outside London the risk of large measles outbreaks is low but we could see smaller outbreaks in specific populations, including teenagers, young people and under vaccinated communities.
Those who have never received a measles vaccine (MMR) are at risk.
MMR is part of the NHS Routine Childhood Immunisation Programme. Parents whose infants missed out, or anyone of any age unvaccinated, are urged to come forward.
Susceptibility is particularly high among 19 to 25 year olds, affected by unfounded stories in the early 2000s (‘Wakefield cohorts’) and some may still not be fully vaccinated.
As part of continued efforts to protect people against getting measles, the NHS is today launching a campaign encouraging people to check their vaccination status, with targeted outreach to groups in London.
Data published today by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows there has been a steady rise in measles cases this year. A new risk assessment also reveals the potential for a measles resurgence, particularly in London.
Between 1 January and 30 June this year there have been 128 cases of measles, compared to 54 cases in the whole of 2022, with 66 per cent of the cases detected in London although cases have been seen in all regions.
The UKHSA assessment finds the risk of a measles epidemic across the UK is considered low. However, with lower current levels of coverage in London, a measles outbreak of between 40,000 and 160,000 cases could occur in the capital.
The assessment also concludes that there is a high risk of cases linked to overseas travel leading to outbreaks in specific population groups such as young people and under-vaccinated communities.
The risk in London is primarily due to low vaccination rates over several years, further impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in some areas and groups where coverage of the first MMR dose at 2 years of age is as low as 69.5%.
Parents should check their children are fully vaccinated with 2 MMR doses, which gives 99% life-long protection, by checking their red book or with their GP practice, which younger and older adults can also do. Anyone not up-to-date should make an appointment as soon as possible.
Achieving high vaccination coverage across the population, ‘herd immunity’, is important as it indirectly helps protect very young infants (under one) and other vulnerable groups.
It’s vital all children and adults catch up on any missed vaccinations and this is especially important if travelling overseas this summer.
