#17,753
In February of 2021, 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).
At least 4.5 million homes were without power during bitter winter temperatures - some for a week - resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).
Widespread, and often prolonged power outages are common following natural disasters like hurricanes and blizzards. But the threats to our electrical grid extend far beyond severe weather.
Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their most recent report (2021) warns that our cumulative GPA for infrastructure sits at only a C-, and two of our most vulnerable infrastructures are drinking water and the electrical grid (see When Our Modern Infrastructure Fails).
For Energy, which they rate as a C-, they warn:
Overview
In a digital, connected world, Americans increasingly rely on readily available and uninterrupted electricity. Over the last four years, transmission and distribution and reliability-focused pipeline investments have increased, and outages have declined slightly. Annual spending on high voltage transmission lines grew from $15.6 billion in 2012 to $21.9 billion in 2017, while annual spending on distribution systems — the “last mile” of the electricity network — grew 54% over the past two decades. Utilities are taking proactive steps to strengthen the electric grid through resilience measures.
However, weather remains an increasing threat. Among 638 transmission outage events reported from 2014 to 2018, severe weather was cited as the predominant cause. Additionally, distribution infrastructure struggles with reliability, with 92% of all outages occurring along these segments. In the coming years, additional transmission and distribution infrastructure, smart planning, and improved reliability are needed to accommodate the changing energy landscape, as delivery becomes distributed and renewables grow.
In addition to ageing infrastructure, and ever increasing power demands, there are threats from cyber attacks (see DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report), solar flares and CMEs (see FEMA: Preparing the Nation for Space Weather Events), and even potential disruptions due to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.
These are serious enough threats that in December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
It is the job of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to "ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system", a mandate given to it in 2006 as a result of the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.
Their latest winter outlook - published yesterday - warns that `A large portion of the North American BPS (bulk power system) is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions'.
The press release/summary from NERC follows:
Announcement
November 8, 2023 ATLANTA – NERC’s 2023–2024 Winter Reliability Assessment finds that much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions. The areas identified as being at elevated risk extend over much of the eastern two-thirds of the continent. In these areas, although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging due to generator outages and fuel vulnerability, extreme levels of electricity demand, difficulties in accurate forecasting and the risk of firm electricity transfer curtailments.
“Extreme cold weather events can cause electricity demand to deviate significantly from historical forecasts. Electricity demand in winter is closely tied to outside temperature. As electric heat pumps and heating systems become more prevalent, their combined effect on system demand is even more pronounced,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments. “The growth of intermittent resources, like solar generation, on the distribution system significantly increases load forecasting complexity and uncertainty. Once again, we strongly recommend that operators take the necessary steps to prepare for winter.”
The assessment reflects recommendations in the FERC, NERC and Regional Entity Staff Report, Inquiry into Bulk-Power System Operations During December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott which highlights the need to take urgent action on the interdependence between the bulk power and natural gas systems, including the need for sufficient and reliable gas and electric infrastructure to sustain energy reliability.
Since last year, NERC and industry stakeholders have worked diligently to revise existing standards and introduce a new standard to assure power plants are adequately winterized and prepared for extreme cold temperatures.
“We enter the winter season with new cold weather standards in effect, specifically aimed at improving winter preparedness and coordination between Generator Owners and Generator Operators and bulk power system operators. Additional cold weather standards recently adopted by NERC’s Board have been filed for FERC approval,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis. “This is a positive development in ensuring industry is prepared for extreme cold weather.
This year’s assessment, which was previewed in the 2023 Winter Reliability video, makes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on bulk power system this winter that include:
• Cold Weather Preparations – Grid operators, Generator Owners and Generator Operators should implement the NERC Level 3 Essential Actions alert, Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events III, and winter operating plans.
• Fuel – Reliability Coordinators and Balancing Authorities should implement fuel surveys and monitor fuel supply adequacy.
• Load Forecasting – Balancing authorities should anticipate potential for underestimating load in extreme cold and take early action to reduce the risk of reserve shortfall.
• State Regulators and Policymakers – State regulators and policymakers should support public appeal for reduced electricity and natural gas use and be prepared to handle requests for environmental and transportation waivers when needed for reliability.
Undertaken annually in coordination with the Regional Entities, NERC’s Winter Reliability Assessments examine multiple factors that collectively provide deep and unique insights into reliability risk. These factors include resource adequacy, encompassing reserve margins and scenarios to identify operational risk; fuel assurance; and preparations to mitigate reliability concerns.
The full 46-page assessment is available at this LINK.
Regardless of how it happens (natural or deliberate), or the scale (local, regional, national), our fragile power grid is the Achilles heel of our nation, and our economy.
While some scenarios - like an EMP attack, Cyber attack, or massive solar storm - are frankly too overwhelming for the average person to adequately prepare for, there are plenty of less severe grid down scenarios that can be partially mitigated by a modicum of individual preparedness.
Most disasters boil down to unscheduled camping - for days, or sometimes weeks - in your home, in a community shelter, or possibly even in your backyard. Preparedness can not only make that process possible, it can make it less miserable as well.
My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water. Recommended preps include:
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
Some of my preparedness blogs on how to become better prepared in case the lights go out include:
#Natlprep: Cultivating Preparedness - One Gift At A Time
My Upgraded Solar Power System (2023 Edition)
A Prep In Time
Hurricane Preparedness: Some Simple Off-The-Shelf Solar Solutions For Power Outages
Being prepared for prolonged power outages doesn't guarantee you and your loved ones will come through a major disaster unscathed.
But it is relatively cheap insurance, and when things go pear-shaped, it can substantially improve your chances.
