#17,757
Despite the flood of videos on twitter/X and social media sites purporting to show massive volcanic eruptions and lava flows on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula, as of this writing (screen capture at 0830 EST today), no eruption has occurred.
There is, of course, considerable concern that an eruption is imminent, and so an evacuation has been ordered of the town of Grindavík and surrounding areas.
The most recent Twitter/X update from the Icelandic Met Office reads:
The Icelandic Met Office continues to provide updates on their website. As the following graphic illustrates, the rate of seismic activity in and around the Reykjanes ridge has increased dramatically over the past 48 hours.
The last two updates follow:
The rate of ground deformation is much higher than has been measured previously on the Reykjanes Peninsula
Around 800 earthquakes have been detected since midnight. The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management will hold a press meeting at 12:00 to update the public on the ongoing unrest and possible scenarios
11.11.2023
Updated 11. November at 12:00pm
Since midnight, around 800 earthquakes have been measured in the region where the magma intrusion is occurring. The earthquake activity has diminished slightly in the past hours, but it remains high. Most of the recent earthquakes have occurred close to Grindavík, where the southwest end of the magmatic dyke is estimated to be located.
Analysis of the earthquakes from today and yesterday is ongoing. The goal of this work is to better understand the evolution of the magma intrusion. Presently, the data indicates that the magma intrusion extends from Stóra-Skógsfell in the north to Grindavík in the south, where it extends beneath the sea. In accordance with the latest preliminary models, using the most recent satellite data acquired last night, the shallowest depth of the top of the magma intrusion north of Grindavík is 1.5 km. Joint interpretation of the ground and satellite measurements indicate that the size of the magma intrusion and the rate at which it is moving are several times larger than have been measured previously on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Our assessment is that an eruption, if it were to occur, will originate from the northern side of the magma intrusion. This means that there is a greater likelihood of an eruption beginning close to Sundhnjúkagígur.
Scientists are meeting regularly to interpret the data and update the latest models and hazard assessments. A meeting for journalists will be held at 12:00 at the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management. The current conditions and future scenarios will be discussed.
Updated 10. November at 11:30pm
Significant changes have occurred in the seismic activity measured near Sundhnjúkagígar north of Grindavík and deformation observed in the Reykjanes Peninsula this afternoon. The seismic activity has moved south towards Grindavík. Based on how the seismic activity has evolved since 6 PM today, along with results from GPS measurements, there is a likelihood that a magma intrusion has extended beneath Grindavík. In light of this outcome, the police chief in Suðurnes, in cooperation with the Civil Protection Authorities, has decided to evacuate Grindavík. An emergency level of civil protection is now in effect. This is not an emergency evacuation. Residents of Grindavík are advised to proceed with caution.
At this stage, it is not possible to determine exactly whether and where magma might reach the surface. There are indications that a considerable amount of magma is moving in an area extending from Sundhnjúkagígum in the north towards Grindavík. The amount of magma involved is significantly more than what was observed in the largest magma intrusions associated with the eruptions at Fagradalsfjall. Further data is being collected to calculate models that provide a more accurate picture of the magma intrusion. It is currently not possible to say when this work will be completed.
The likelihood of a volcanic eruption occurring in the near future is deemed considerable.
While you can find legitimate independent reporting on Twitter/X and YouTube, much of what is out there is clickbait.
Caveat Lector.
