#17,774
A little over 24 hours ago ProMed published an RFI (Request for Information) after posting a report from a Taiwan media source on a surge in `Undiagnosed pneumonia' - primarily in children - hospitalized in Beijing and Liaoning Provinces in China.
While obviously concerning, `undiagnosed pneumonia' covers a lot of territory, and its been well documented (see FluTrackers threads here, here, and here) that for the past couple of months China as been dealing with a surge in respiratory illness, particularly in children.
The `official' Chinese explanation has been `Mycoplasma pneumonia', but this time of year it is more likely to be a mixture of respiratory viruses (flu, RSV, COVID, etc.) on top of any CAP (Community Acquired Pneumonia).
China has a history of being less than forthcoming when it comes to disease outbreaks (see EID Journal: Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths, China, December 2022–February 2023), and so something more exotic can't be ruled out.
Overnight the World Health Organization posted the following statement on Twitter/X. I'll return with a postscript after the break.
WHO statement on reported clusters of respiratory illness in children in northern China
WHO has made an official request to #China for detailed information on an increase in respiratory illnesses and reported clusters of pneumonia in children.
At a press conference on 13 November 2023, Chinese authorities from the National Health Commission reported an increase in incidence of respiratory diseases in China.
Chinese authorities attributed this increase to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and the circulation of known pathogens such as influenza, mycoplasma pneumoniae (a common bacterial infection which typically affects younger children), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Authorities stressed the need for enhanced disease surveillance in healthcare facilities and community settings, as well as strengthening the capacity of the health system to manage patients.
On 21 November, media and ProMED reported clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia in children in northern China. It is unclear if these are associated with the overall increase in respiratory infections previously reported by Chinese authorities, or separate events.
On 22 November, WHO requested additional epidemiologic and clinical information, as well as laboratory results from these reported clusters among children, through the International Health Regulations mechanism.
We have also requested further information about recent trends in the circulation of known pathogens including influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV and mycoplasma pneumoniae, and the current burden on health care systems.
WHO is also in contact with clinicians and scientists through our existing technical partnerships and networks in China.
Since mid-October, northern China has reported an increase in influenza-like illness compared to the same period in the previous three years. China has systems in place to capture information on trends in influenza, influenza-like illnesses, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2, and reports to platforms such as the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.
While WHO seeks this additional information, we recommend that people in China follow measures to reduce the risk of respiratory illness, which include recommended vaccination; keeping distance from people who are ill; staying home when ill; getting tested and medical care as needed; wearing masks as appropriate; ensuring good ventilation; and regular hand-washing.
WHO will continue to provide updates.
While this may be nothing more than a post-COVID surge in already-known seasonal respiratory illnesses, China often treats bad news as a national security issue - and with reports of their economy faltering, and growing dissent in the population - they may well be downplaying a more serious situation.
It certainly wouldn't be the first time (see The China Syndrome). We've are also seen a slowdown in reports of HPAI H5N6, - and other avian flu viruses - from China over the past year.
But China is far from alone in strategically dispensing disease outbreak information (see Flying Blind In The Viral Storm). Much of the world has dismantled their COVID surveillance and reporting apparatus, and surveillance and reporting on other emerging infectious diseases (like like novel flu & MERS-CoV) have serious gaps as well.
Regardless of what comes out of this week's reports of an `unidentified pneumonia' in China, you can be assured another global disease threat will emerge.
It's simply a matter of time.
