Countries NOT reporting COVID Deaths to WHO In Last 60 Days
#17,834
Two years ago the collective decision was made to slowly de-emphasize the impact of the COVID pandemic by gradually cutting back on surveillance and reporting. As laboratory testing declined in favor of home testing, daily reports were replaced by weekly updates, and then by monthly summaries (often omitting crucial data, like COVID deaths or ICU admissions).
As a result, the official WHO Epi Curve for the COVID pandemic makes it look as if COVID has all but vanished over the past 12 months.
But looks can be deceiving.
The reality is most countries have simply stopped reporting cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. COVID cases and deaths are certainly far lower than during the height of the pandemic, but they are just as certainly much higher than the official numbers would suggest.
Despite these gaps in crucial data, the latest WHO update (Dec 22nd) shows a significant uptick in cases globally. How much is hard to say, since we don't have a reliable baseline to compare it to.
But globally, the number of cases appears to have risen 52% over the previous reporting period, with Southeast Asia reporting a nearly 4-fold increase. Deaths (often a lagging indicator) have not risen, but again, many countries aren't reporting deaths at all.
Which is why the WHO Epi report contains multiple caveats, such as the following (emphasis mine):
Reported cases do not accurately represent infection rates due to the reduction in testing and reporting globally. During this 28-day period, only 45% (105 of 234) of countries reported at least one case to WHO. It is important to note that this statistic does not reflect the actual number of countries where cases exist.
Additionally, data from the previous 28-day period are continuously being updated to incorporate retrospective changes made by countries regarding reported COVID-19 cases and deaths. Data presented in this report are therefore incomplete and should be interpreted considering these limitations.
Digging deeper, the WHO reports that only `36 countries consistently reported new hospitalizations', which represents only about 15% of member nations. Of those, 33% reported a 20% or greater increase over the previous 4-week reporting period.
While declaring `victory' over COVID may have been good for the global economy and the political fortunes of a select few, this lack of data integrity leaves us vulnerable to being blindsided.
If not by JN.1, then by something else down the line. Reporting on avian flu, MERS-CoV, and other emerging threats have suffered since the pandemic as well.
For now, our immediate concern is the JN.1 variant sweeping the globe, and while we've seen no signs that it is any more severe than previous Omicron variants, it does appear to be more immune evasive. And that means that a lot more people could be infected in the next few months.
Given what we know (or think we know) about `Long COVID', that alone should be enough to give pause.
The CDC has published their second update on the JN.1 variant since Dec. 9th (see below), where they urge people to take precautions (get vaccinated, self-testing, increase ventilation, and even wear masks), and warn that JN.1 could cause an increase in infections or hospitalizations.
CDC Continues to Track the Growth of JN.1
December 22, 2023, 11:00 AM EDT
CDC is posting updates on respiratory viruses every week; for the latest information, please visit CDC Respiratory Virus Updates.
JN.1 continues to increase in proportion
CDC has been tracking JN.1 for months, since it first split from its parent, BA.2.86. JN.1 is similar to BA.2.86 but has an additional mutation (L455S) in the spike protein. JN.1 continues to cause an increasing share of infections and is now the most widely circulating variant in the United States. For the two weeks ending on December 23, 2023, JN.1 is expected to account for 39-50% of all SARS-CoV-2 variants. That’s an increase from the projected prevalence two weeks ago of 15-29%. We’re also seeing an increasing share of infections caused by JN.1 in travelers, wastewater, and most regions around the globe.
JN.1’s continued growth suggests that the variant is either more transmissible or better at evading our immune systems than other circulating variants. It is too early to know whether or to what extent JN.1 will cause an increase in infections or hospitalizations.
It’s important to know that existing vaccines, tests, and treatments still work well against JN.1, so this variant does not affect CDC’s recommendations. Recent laboratory data (here and here) show that the updated 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccines produce antibodies that protect against JN.1, further indicating that our vaccines work well against this variant. At this time, the spread of JN.1 does not appear to pose additional risks to public health beyond that of other recent variants. CDC is closely monitoring COVID-19 increases domestically and internationally and will communicate if the situation changes.
Regardless of JN.1, we are seeing increasing COVID-19 activity this fall and winter season as we have in prior years. COVID-19 activity is elevated and increasing (though not dramatically) in the United States, as measured by emergency department visits, test positivity, wastewater levels, and hospitalizations. It’s a good time to take extra precautions to protect yourself and others, especially while other respiratory diseases including influenza are also on the rise.
Read more about JN.1
Take steps to protect yourself against JN.1 and other circulating variants
The spread of JN.1 does not alter CDC’s COVID-19 recommendations. COVID-19 remains a serious public health threat, especially for people at higher risk of severe disease, such as older adults, infants, and people with certain disabilities and underlying health conditions. We encourage you to take steps to protect yourself and others.
These actions can help protect you and your loved ones against the most severe effects of COVID-19
Get your updated COVID-19 vaccine.
- Test if you develop respiratory symptoms or are exposed to someone who has COVID-19.
- Talk to a healthcare provider about treatment if you test positive and are at higher risk for severe effects of COVID-19.
- Help reduce the spread of COVID-19.
- Improving your indoor air is one of the best ways to prevent spread.This can be as simple as using a portable air cleaner or opening windows (for those with pleasant winter weather). And if your home thermostat offers a FAN option, turn it from AUTO to ON when you have visitors to keep air running continuously.
- Learn more about other ways to help reduce spread, including testing for COVID-19, wearing masks, and increasing space and distancing.
Last Reviewed: December 22, 2023
Of course, all of this is happening on top of our winter flu season, which has ramped up considerably over the past few weeks (see CDC FluView map below).
