The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) published this update at 11:30 EDT - now citing 7 incoming CMEs. They have not upgraded the watch, however, which remains at a G4 (Severe) level. Effects could begin later today.
As we approach the peak of the 11-year solar cycle (expected in 2025), the sun has become more active, with an increased number of sunspots and more eruptive activity (flares and CMEs).
While we are shielded from much of the impact of space weather by our atmosphere and the earth's magnetic field, extremely large solar flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) can be damaging.
Over the past 3 days the sun has launched at least 5 (and now possibly 6) earth-directed CMEs, which should arrive over the weekend. Individually, none of these are strong enough to have a serious impact - but combined - they may pack a more powerful punch.
Last night, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued the following watch. Over the past few hours the sun has produce another X4 flare, although it is too soon to know if it has produced an earth-directed CME.
published: Thursday, May 09, 2024 20:38 UTC
On Thursday, May 9, 2024, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch. At least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024. Several strong flares have been observed over the past few days and were associated with a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster (NOAA region 3664), which is 16 times the diameter of Earth.
NOAA will hold a special teleconference this morning at 10am EDT (details here) to discuss this space weather event and explain the Geomagnetic Storm Watch. As of now, a `Severe' level 4 storm is predicted, which is the second highest category and may impact:
Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).
The full scale is shown below.
Although typically we would expect some sporadic power outages, and communications glitches, from this level of storm, precise predictions are impossible, and the actual impacts could be stronger or weaker than expected.
The fact that 4, 5, or perhaps even 6 CMEs may hit over a period of 24-48 hours further complicates the forecast. And it is also possible that additional CMEs will erupt in the hours ahead.
Predictably YouTube is already brimming with `clickbaity' videos predicting a `killshot' or `Carrington-level Event' this weekend. My advice is to closely follow NOAA's SWPC, and for some valuable context, visit Dr. Tony Phillips' excellent Spaceweather.com.
As we've discussed over the years, another `Carrington-level' event - one that could take down much of the world's electrical infrastructure - is always possible. Some would even say inevitable. In 2012, the earth got enormously lucky (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012).
You can view a 4-minute video on our `near-hit' here.
FEMA takes these threats seriously, and last year offered a free online training course - for emergency managers and the general public - on preparing the nation for space weather events.
published: Monday, April 24, 2023 17:24 UTC
FEMA has developed a training module that introduces both space weather and space weather impacts. It also provides excellent background on the US Government's plan for an extreme space weather storm. This course covers the lessons necessary for a greater understanding of space weather and its impacts, strengthens understanding of space weather events; the potential impacts from those events; and the roles of the Federal Government as well as the local and jurisdictional Emergency Manager in preparing for and mitigating
This is likely the first of many salvos we'll take over the next 12-24 months from the sun, and while most will produce only minor impacts, a severe and damaging storm is always possible.
In 2017, in USGS: Preparing The Nation For Severe Space Weather, we looked at an analysis that suggests Extreme space weather-induced electricity blackouts could cost U.S. more than $40 billion daily, potentially trillions over a year.
While it's probably impossible to prepare for the absolute worst-case scenario, the good news is that is very unlikely to happen. Far more likely are regional power or communication outages, possibly lasting a few days or even a couple of weeks.
Whether due to an earthquake, a hurricane, or even a solar storm - a certain amount of preparedness just makes good sense.
So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
