#18,050
While governments and the dairy industry continue to reassure `the risks of human infection are low', the scope and impact of HPAI's introduction and spread in American livestock is only partially understood, and no one really knows where this will lead us.
I'd be far more comforted if we were seeing a coordinated, and robust, response. But we're not.
The CDC and USDA appear to be largely out of the loop, with many states insisting they `manage' the problem. There are credible anecdotal reports of `symptomatic' dairy workers, but very little human testing has been done. Despite strong evidence the HPAI H5N1 virus is widespread in dairy cattle, only 36 herds across 9 states have been identified (with none added since 4/25).
Information continues to be slow to be released, and is often missing crucial data.
None of this guarantees we are the cusp of a human epidemic, but we are being remarkably cavalier with a highly dangerous and unpredictable virus. And while we may get lucky, and the current threat may recede, HPAI in cattle may be an important stepping stone to the next level of this expanding crisis.
The CDC - which hasn't fully recovered from some of its missteps during the COVID pandemic - continues to message on HPAI H5N1 from the sidelines, although it isn't clear how many people are listening.
Earlier this week they reiterated their PPE advice (see CDC Recommendations On Making PPE Available To Workers on Dairy Farms, Poultry Farms, and in Slaughterhouses) for anyone in close contact with potentially infected animals.
Similar advice was issued last month to veterinarians who might be exposed to infected cats (see CDC Guidance for Veterinarians: Evaluating & Handling Cats Potentially Exposed to HPAI H5N1). As noted in the CDC graphic at the top of this blog, cats are now an important part of the HPAI ecosystem.
The CDC has also published the following graphic which illustrates the many unknowns regarding the spread of HPAI in cattle (and beyond).
Although there is always the chance that HPAI H5 viruses are incapable of causing a pandemic (see Are Influenza Pandemic Viruses Members Of An Exclusive Club?), that's risking a lot on the notion we might get lucky.
While the future is unknowable, the signs of danger ahead are increasing.
And we should be paying heed.
