#18,338
We are now 7 months into the `bovine H5N1' crisis, and while > 256 dairy herds in across 14 states have been identified as infected, we have no idea how widespread the problem really is. Only Colorado has ordered weekly bulk-milk testing.
States, and dairy farmers, remain less than enthusiastic about testing cattle, or bulk milk, and the Federal government maintains they have no authority (except for interstate transport) to compel such tests.
The USDA has offered Financial and Other Support Options to dairy farmers, yet there have been relatively few takers. For too many farms, in too many states, `Don't Test, Don't Tell' remains the preferred course of action.
Similarly, many states have rebuffed offers from the CDC to help investigate potential human cases. Anecdotal reports - some published in scientific journals - suggest that some unknown number of human cases have probably gone unrecognized.
In an attempt to entice more states to allow testing, yesterday the FDA unveiled a 6-week voluntary `Silo Study', where states are encouraged to submit `double-blinded' samples of raw milk for testing.
The FDA assures that:
This double-blinded study is designed for data-gathering purposes only, with no intent or means of traceback or trace forward. Neither participating nor non-participating states or facilities will be identified as part of this project.
In other words, we will never know which states participated, and which states declined, or in what states infected samples were found. While this study could yield some valuable data, it is likely to be limited due to these `incentives'.
I've reproduced the FDA announcement below. I'll have a bit more after the break.
What's New
October 3, 2024
Since the onset of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5N1 (H5N1) outbreak in dairy cattle earlier this year, researchers across the federal and state governments have been working to understand the prevalence of H5N1 in the U.S. milk supply.
This week, states were invited to participate in a new study that will generate data to aid in the understanding of the prevalence of H5N1 in bulk raw cow’s milk received by dairy processing facilities across the nation. Dubbed “the silo study,” the information garnered from this research can help inform the national strategy to control the spread of the virus to other dairy cattle and avian flocks, and to identify any viral transformations.
Beginning October 28, Grade “A” raw cow’s milk from participating states intended to be pasteurized will be sampled from raw milk storage silos at dairy processing facilities, over a six-week period.
This double-blinded study is designed for data-gathering purposes only, with no intent or means of traceback or trace forward. Neither participating nor non-participating states or facilities will be identified as part of this project. Samples will be collected, double blinded, and sent to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory for analysis.
A robust milk sampling program exists within the regulatory framework of the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO) and the federal-state cooperative Grade “A” milk program. The silo study seeks to leverage the Grade “A” Milk Safety Cooperative Program and its members to further understand the prevalence of HPAI in cow’s milk that is sent for commercial processing and stored at dairy processing facilities prior to pasteurization.
State participation in the silo study is voluntary, but it is hoped that states will want to contribute to this important project. The FDA, National Conference of Interstate Milk ShipmentsExternal Link Disclaimer (NCIMS), and USDA will review the results of the silo study and are committed to providing study results in the near future.
The FDA’s ongoing assessments of the milk safety system continue to confirm that pasteurization is effective at eliminating infectious H5N1 virus in dairy milk. In addition to this silo study, the FDA is funding research activities (see the September 26 update) designed to ensure the continued effectiveness of the federal-state milk safety system. The FDA will continue to follow a sound, scientific process to inform the agency’s public health decisions related to milk safety during the first-of-its-kind outbreak of H5N1 in dairy cattle. The FDA remains committed to providing further updates on research efforts.
States and the dairy industry appear to be banking on the idea that HPAI H5 will eventually burn itself out in cattle, and that meanwhile human infections will remain sporadic and mild.
The H5 virus continues to spill over from cattle to other peridomestic animals (cats, rats, birds, etc.), and where that leads is anyone's guess. There are no guarantees that human infections will remain mild, and assurances that the `milk supply remains safe' ring hollow, when 30 states allow the legal sale of raw milk.And while that is one possible outcome, it isn't the only one.
Even if we get lucky, and HPAI H5 fades away - if we get used to wearing blinders - we'll never see the next threat coming.
