#18,339
For the past few days forecast models (GFS, Euro, CMC, etc.) have been hinting at the formation of a ragged tropical depression/storm in the Southwestern Gulf, which would track over Florida next week. Odds of formation were 40%-50%, and it was expected to be primarily a rainmaker.
Overnight those odds have jumped to 80% (according the NHC), and some of the models are hinting at something stronger coming our way.
Models, however, are not consistent or in alignment, meaning the forecast is subject to change over the next couple of days. The NHC's 5 am Tropical Weather Outlook reads:
1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
As badly as we need a respite to rebuild, regroup, and recover - hurricane season runs until the end of November. By mid-October, the Atlantic hurricane spawning grounds may have retracted significantly, but the western Gulf of Mexico remains fertile ground for development.
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