#18,528
As the world slowly emerges from its holiday-induced 2-week coma, we should start to see more frequent updates on HPAI, and other emerging disease threats, in the days ahead.
While the numbers for 2024 may still need some adjusting, we begin 2025 with the following baselines (according to the most recent updates from the CDC and the USDA).
Last updated on January 3rd, the CDC's number of confirmed human H5 infections - starting in March of 2024 - remains at 66. Unchanged since Dec 24th.
Note: Does not include at least 7 additional `probable' cases reported by states, or any serologically detected cases.
The USDA's running tally of H5 infected dairy cattle herds hasn't been updated since Dec 31st, when the tally for 2024 stood at 915 herds across 16 states. California making up the bulk (n=699) of cases.
A month ago the USDA announced a New Federal Order To Begin National Milk Testing Strategy for Avian Flu, which was (on a limited scale) scheduled to begin the week of Dec. 16, 2024. So far, we've not seen any results from that expanded testing program.
The USDA also reported the loss of more than 18 million chickens during the month of December (see below), which represents a sharp increase over the previous two months.
Also quite noticeable, we've seen a decided eastward shift in outbreaks during the month of December (see map below), after several months of mostly seeing the Western states being affected.
And lastly, we've seen a slowdown this fall in the reporting by states of H5 infected wildlife, despite ample evidence (from livestock, wild bird, and human infections) that there is a high level of the virus in the wild.
The USDA's last update was posted on Dec 23rd, and it showed 418 reported cases across nearly 2 dozen mammalian species since 2022.
After 194 submissions to this list between May and July of this year, we've seen only 24 additions over the past 23 weeks. It is not entirely clear why we've seen this dramatic drop off in reporting.
Nor is it clear why the vast majority of the reports have come from northern states, although some of that may come down to differences in climate and terrain (swamps vs. forests vs. deserts).
Some States have yet to report a single case, while others have reported scores, which suggests that some states may not be looking as hard as others for evidence of wildlife infections.
Given the numerous HPAI H5N1 milestones we've seen in 2024 (see recent reviews here, here, and here), I won't even begin to speculate as to what 2025 will bring.
I'll only suggest that you plan to visit FluTrackers, CIDRAP, Hogvet51’s Substack, and hopefully this blog on a regular basis, in order to keep up with the latest developments.
