Sunday, December 08, 2024

An Overview of Significant HPAI H5 Related Events Over The Past 4 Weeks


 #18,472

Twenty-eight days, and 66 blog entries ago, we took a look back at the previous 3 weeks of rapid-fire developments surrounding HPAI H5, and on several fronts the pace has only quickened since then. 

Admittedly, H5N1 isn't the only threat we are concerned with (see DRC `Mystery Virus' investigation), but it is the most pressing, and currently the closest to home. 

Over the past 4 weeks:

  • The number of confirmed H5 human cases in the U.S. has increased by 12, to 58 (with several more announced by states, but not yet confirmed by the CDC.)  If you count serologically confirmed cases (the CDC doesn't) - and those in the pipeline - we are well over 70 cases. 
  • The number of known infected dairy herds has grown from 473 to > 720 (a 65% increase), and a 16th State (Nevada) is now reporting cases. 
  • Over the past 4 weeks more than 9 million birds from 78 flocks across 8 states have been infected (and lost) due to H5N1 in the United States, and Canada has reported > 50 outbreaks in poultry.
  • According to the Marin County Health Dept. they are investigating a second Bay Area child with suspected H5 infection, and currently no known risk exposure. If confirmed, this would become the 3rd `community' case, not linked to occupational exposure. 

In case you missed them, some significant H5 events over the past 4 weeks (from oldest to newest) include:
And those are just the highlights.  We also saw evidence of H5N1 spillover into horses, WOAH's updated statement on H5N1 in Cattle, the USDA's belated Federal order to Begin a National Milk Testing Strategy for Avian Fluamong others.

While the trends are ominous, we still don't know if H5N1 is capable of adapting well enough to humans to spark a pandemic. Of course, by the time we have proof positive, it will be too late to act. 

Which is why last weekend I urged that my readers begin to prepare as if another pandemic may be in the offing (see A Personal Pre-Pandemic Plan). 

Hopefully we'll get lucky, and won't have to face another one for years. 

But a little preparedness today could go a long ways towards mitigating a crisis tomorrow.