Avian Flu Diary: CDC Updates COVID Nowcast

#18,856

Earlier this week, in That Uncertain Feeling, I wrote that the CDC's COVID Nowcast webpage had not been updated since June 20th, and that it - and their wastewater surveillance page - both carried banners indicating `technical difficulties' were delaying data.

CDC Nowcast Screenshot (8/26/25)

Yesterday the CDC published a revamped COVID Nowcast, albeit on a different web url (https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/variants/variants-and-genomic-surveillance.html), making it easy to miss.

This new version is (for now, at least) less detailed than the previous incarnation; it drops completely the HHS regional map (see above), and the number of variants being tracked has fallen from 19 (last June) to just 5 today.

They have added a useful graphic showing the remarkable decline over time in the number of weekly COVID samples sequenced in the United States.

Those without a magnifying glass should know we've gone from a peak of > 90,000 sequences a week to averaging less than 300. A sampling size that makes it difficult to detect new variants until they've established a significant presence.

Based on extremely limited data, yesterday's update suggests that XFG is the only variant currently gaining ground, while the other four being tracked (NB.1.8.1, LP.8.1, NW.1, & LF.7) are either losing ground or holding steady.

After several weeks the CDC has removed the warning banners (see below) from their wastewater surveillance sites in yesterday's update.

But based on the map below, while there are still significant gaps in wastewater testing surveillance around the country, COVID levels are rising particularly in the south and west.

This chronic dearth of COVID data reflects a global shift in priorities - one that appears to prioritize economics and political expediencies over public health concerns - which has led to a dismantling of surveillance systems around the world (see From Here To Impunity).

As a result we are at increased risk of being blindsided by new COVID variants, an `antigenically shifted' seasonal flu virus, spillovers of H5N1, MERS-CoV, or something worse.

There are increasing obstacles now in place for getting the COVID shot - even for seniors - that in the face of continually waning immunity, are only likely to exacerbate the impact of this fall's respiratory season.