WHO Ebola Update – Dec 3rd

 

 

# 9406

 

The World Health Organization has posted their updated Ebola Roadmap, showing an increase of more than 1,200 cases since last week’s report, and 381 additional deaths.   The number of HCWs infected has increased by 30 as well.

Follow the link to view the full report.

 

 

Ebola response roadmap - Situation report

3 December 2014

 

summary

A total of 17 145 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in five affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America) and three previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal and Spain) up to the end of 30 November. There have been 6070 reported deaths. Reported case incidence is slightly increasing in Guinea (77 confirmed cases reported in the week to 30 November), stable or declining in Liberia (43 new confirmed cases in the 5 days to 28 November), and is still rising in Sierra Leone (537 new confirmed cases in the week to 30 November). The case fatality rate across the three most-affected countries in all cases with a recorded definitive outcome is 72%; in hospitalized patients the case fatality rate is 60%.

Response activities in the three intense-transmission countries continue to intensify in line with the UNMEER aim to isolate and treat 70% of EVD cases, and safely bury 70% of EVD-related deaths by 1 December, with the ultimate goal of reaching 100% by 1 January. At a national level, there is now sufficient bed capacity in EVD treatment facilities to treat and isolate all reported EVD cases in each of the three countries, although the uneven distribution of beds and cases means there are serious shortfalls in some areas. Similarly, each country now has sufficient and widespread capacity to bury all reported EVD-related deaths; however, because not all EVD-related deaths are reported, and many reported burials are of non-EVD-related deaths, it is possible that the 70% target has not been met in some areas. Every EVD-affected district in the three intense-transmission countries has access to a laboratory for confirmation within 24 hours of sample collection. All three countries report that more than 85% of registered contacts associated with known cases of EVD are being traced, although contact tracing is still a challenge in areas of intense transmission. Increasing capacity for contact tracing in areas with low levels of transmission will be necessary to end local chains of transmission.

<SNIP>

Health-care workers

A total of 622 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 30 November, 346 of whom have died (table 5). The total case count includes 2 HCWs in Mali, 11 HCWs infected in Nigeria, 1 HCW infected in Spain while treating an EVD-positive patient, and 3 HCWs in the US (including a HCW infected in Guinea, and 2 HCWs infected during the care of a patient in Texas).

Table 5: Ebola virus disease infections in health-care workers in the three countries with intense transmission

 

Data are based on official information reported by ministries of health. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results.*Data missing for 29 and 30 November.

(Continue . . .)

 

WHO Ebola Response Roadmap - Situation Report 26 Nov

 

 

# 9379

 

The World Health Organization has released their latest weekly Ebola situation report, and while case counts and death tallies are still believed to be under-counted, they report that the number of new cases appears to be stable or declining in Liberia and Guinea, but may be rising again in Sierra Leone.

The toll on healthcare workers continues to run high, with nearly 600 infected, and 330 deaths.   Follow the link below ro read the full update online, or Download the PDF

 

Ebola response roadmap - Situation report

26 November 2014

summary

A total of 15 935 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 23 November. There have been 5689 reported deaths. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported in this outbreak. Reported case incidence is stable in Guinea (148 confirmed cases reported in the week to 23 November), stable or declining in Liberia (67 new confirmed cases in the week to 23 November), and may still be rising in Sierra Leone (385 new confirmed cases in the week to 23 November). The total number of cases reported in Sierra Leone since the outbreak began will soon eclipse the number reported from Liberia. The case fatality rate across the three most-affected countries in patients with a recorded definitive outcome is approximately 60%. Three health-care workers were reported infected with EVD in Guinea in the week to 23 November. 

Response activities continue to intensify in line with the UNMEER aim to isolate 70% of EVD cases and safely bury 70% of EVD-related deaths by 1 December. Guinea isolates over 70% of all reported cases of EVD, and has more than 80% of required safe burial teams. Progress on isolation and safe burials has apparently been slower in parts of Liberia and Sierra Leone, although uncertainties in data preclude firm conclusions. At a national level, both countries are apparently unable to isolate 70% of patients, although data on isolation is up to 3 weeks out of date. Every EVD-affected district in the three intense-transmission countries has access to a laboratory for case confirmation within 24 hours of sample collection. All three countries report that more than 80% of registered contacts associated with known cases of EVD are traced, though the low mean number of contacts registered per case suggests that contact tracing is still a challenge in areas of intense transmission.  

<SNIP>

Health-care workers

A total of 592 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 23 November, 340 of whom have died (table 5). The total case count includes 2 HCWs in Mali, 11 HCWs infected in Nigeria, 1 HCW infected in Spain while treating an EVD-positive patient, and 3 HCWs in the US (including a HCW infected in Guinea, and 2 HCWs infected during the care of a patient in Texas).

(Continue . . . )

 

WHO Ebola Roadmap Situation Report – Nov 12th

# 9314

 

 

The latest World Health Organization Ebola Situation report has been posted in a new HTML (web-based) format along with the standard PDF file.

Although there remains a fair degree of uncertainty regarding surveillance and reporting from the region, this latest report contains a lot of information in the form of charts, graphs, and maps. 

 

I’ve only posted a few small excerpts, follow the link to read it in its entirety:

 

Ebola response roadmap - Situation report

12 November 2014

 

summary

A total of 14 098 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 9 November. There have been 5160 reported deaths.

There is some evidence that case incidence is no longer increasing nationally in Guinea and Liberia, but steep increases persist in Sierra Leone.  A mixed picture emerges at the district level. Transmission is consistently high in Conakry and Macenta in Guinea; Montserrado in Liberia; and in the western and northern areas of Sierra Leone. Declines in incidence continue in Lofa in Liberia; and Kenema and Kailahun in Sierra Leone. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported in this outbreak.

In Mali, there have been 4 reported confirmed and probable cases, and 4 deaths. The most recent cases are not related to the first EVD-positive patient in Mali, who died on 24 October.

Interventions to contain the disease in the three most affected countries include isolating and treating patients, identifying their contacts and conducting burials in a safe and dignified manner. In the three most affected countries, 19 of 53 planned Ebola Treatment Centres are now open. A total of 140 trained burial teams are on the ground, and more than 4400 burials have reportedly been conducted in a safe and dignified manner since the outbreak began. Samples from all 53 Ebola-affected districts can be sent to a laboratory within 24 hours by road.

Situation reports are now presented in a web-based format to provide detailed information at the country level, including data and maps, in a more interactive way.

<SNIP>

Health-care workers

A total of 564 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 10 November, 320 of whom have died (table 6). This includes a HCW infected in Spain while treating an EVD-positive patient, 3 HCWs in the US (including a HCW infected in Guinea, and 2 HCWs infected during the care of a patient in Texas). In the week to 9 November, 3 HCWs were infected in the Kerouane district in Guinea.

(Continue . . . )

Note: This web-based version will probably be overwritten by subsequent updates, so you’ll want to use this link to Download the PDF

WHO Ebola Roadmap Update – Nov 5th

 

 

# 9290

 

The numbers coming out of West Africa’s Ebola epidemic have never been particularly credible – with huge, acknowledged gaps in both surveillance, reporting.  And as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, reassessments and reviews of the data sometimes result in unexpected swings in the data. 

 

Despite ample evidence that new cases are showing up every day, today the World Health Organization’s  latest Ebola roadmap report shows almost 700 fewer cases than was reported a week ago, and nearly 100 fewer deaths.

 

One very disturbing area where the numbers have not gone down are the number of HCWs (Healthcare workers) either infected, or killed by this outbreak.  Today’s tally shows 25 more HCW infections, and 38 HCW deaths reported over what was reported a week ago – although it isn’t clear exactly when these individuals were infected or died.

 

Use this link to download the entire 12-page report.

WHO Ebola Roadmap Update #10 – October 29th

 

# 9265

 

The WHO announced the big jump in numbers during a press conference earlier today, but the actual PDF document has just gone live, giving us more detail.   Today’s report adds more than 3,500 cases to the total last reported on Saturday, but that number represents a `catch-up’ of cases over many weeks, not a sudden jump in cases.

 

While the total number of cases has increased, the number of deaths has actually gone down, as some previously identified `Ebola deaths’ have been reclassified.

 

One of the big question marks is what is happening in Liberia – an area that just a few weeks ago that was seeing an exponential growth in cases – but over the past two weeks has reported a substantial decline.  

 

Whether this reflects the reality on the ground, a temporary blip, or a genuine trend is too soon to tell.

 

Some excerpts from today’s report below, but follow the link to read the report in its entirety.

 

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP SITUATION REPORT

SUMMARY

A total of 13 703 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 27 October. There  have been 4 922 deaths.

The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively. EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. All administrative districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone have now reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began.

Cases of EVD transmission remain lowest in Guinea, but case numbers are still very high in absolute terms.

Transmission remains intense in the capital cities of the three most affected countries. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported in the outbreak.

Of the countries with localized transmission, Mali, Spain and the United States of America continue to monitor potential contacts. In Mali, a 2-year-old girl died of Ebola on 24 October, after travelling with her grandmother from Guinea. The case makes Mali the sixth West African nation to be affected in the current Ebola outbreak.

In Spain, the single patient with EVD tested negative for the disease for a second time on 21 October. Spain will be declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test, unless a new case arises during that period. In the US, two health-care workers have tested negative for Ebola for the second time, and have been discharged from hospital. Another health-care worker remains in isolation and is receiving treatment.

<SNIP>

LIBERIA
Liberia has reported 6 535 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases, and remains the country worst affected by the outbreak (figure 2).

The most intense transmission continues to occur in the Montserrado area, where 30 new probable cases were reported in the last full week. This region takes in the Liberian capital, Monrovia. The weekly increase in  new cases in the area, however, appears to have halted since mid-September, with a reduction in numbers of confirmed and probable cases reported in the week ending 5 October. It is possible that this reflects a true reduction in incidence. However, further data are needed to resolve this question. Liberia continues to report few confirmed cases. Laboratory data on recent confirmed cases may provide scope for deeper analysis not currently provided by the incidence data. The capacity to capture a true picture of the situation in Liberia remains hamstrung by underreporting of cases.

Outside Monrovia, most newly reported cases have come from the districts of Bong, Margibi, and Bomi, which each reported 12 probable cases in the last full week. The district of Grand Gadeh, which was previously considered the only unaffected area in Liberia, now has 2 confirmed and 2 suspected cases. It is likely, however, that these cases did not occur in the past week, and the reporting of these cases has been delayed. Data for Liberia are missing for 19, 20, 21, 26 and 27 October.

<SNIP>

HEALTH-CARE WORKERS

A total of 521 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 27 October, 272 of whom have died (table 2). The large rise in the number of infections of HCWs in Liberia reflects changes in its method of reporting, and the inclusion of cases that had previously not been reported.

WHO is undertaking extensive investigations to determine the cause of infection in each case.

Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care. Infection prevention and control quality assurance checks are now underway at every Ebola treatment unit in the three intense-transmission countries. At the same time, exhaustive efforts are ongoing to ensure an ample supply of optimal personal protective equipment to all Ebola treatment facilities, along with the provision of training and relevant guidelines to ensure that all HCWs are exposed to the minimum possible level of risk.

 

WHO Ebola Roadmap Update – Oct 25th

 

# 9248

 

Delayed a day, I suspect, because of the fast breaking news about NYC and Mali, the World Health Organization has released their latest end-of-week situation report on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, showing an increase of 950 cases over the past week. 

About a 15% increase over the previous week’s tally (n=820).

 

Exactly how representative these numbers really are of the situation in the these hot zone countries is a matter of some debate, although it is widely assumed they are significant undercounts. While the total number of cases reported is just over 10,000 – many observers peg the actual number as likely being 2 or even 3 times higher. 

 

Media reports suggest many cases are hidden from view, in part over family’s fears that their loved ones would be cremated if they did not survive. We’ve also seen variations in reporting on this outbreak in the past that has led – prematurely and erroneously – to speculation that this outbreak could be on the wane. 

 

 

SUMMARY

A total of 10 141 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal) up to the end of 23 October. There have been 4922 reported deaths.

Following the WHO Ebola Response Roadmap structure1, country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2) those with or that have had an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of America). An overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate, unrelated outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 1).

1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION

A total of 10 114 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD and 4912 deaths have been reported up to the end of 18 October 2014 by the Ministry of Health of Liberia, 21 October by the Ministry of Health of Guinea, and 22 October by the Ministry of Health of Sierra Leone (table 1). All but one district in Liberia and all districts in Sierra Leone have now reported at least one case of EVD since the start of the outbreak (figure 1). Of the eight Guinean and Liberian districts that share a border with C te d voire, only two are yet to report a confirmed or probable case of EVD.

A total of 450 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 23 October: 80 in Guinea; 228 in Liberia; 11 in Nigeria; 127 in Sierra Leone; one in Spain; and three in the United States of America. A total of 244 HCWs have died.

(Continue . . .)

While a separate event with no connection to the West African epidemic, the outbreak in the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) is also updated in this report.   Unlike in West Africa, this outbreak appears to have been quickly brought under control.

 

ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

As at 21 October 2014 there have been 67 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable, 1 suspected) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 49 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.

Of 1121 total contacts, 1116 have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of five contacts currently being monitored, all were seen on 21 October, the last date for which data has been reported. On 10 October, the last reported case tested negative for the second time and was discharged. The Democratic Republic of the Congo will therefore be declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test if no new cases are reported. This outbreak is unrelated to the outbreak that originated in West Africa.

 

WHO Ebola Roadmap # 9 – Oct 22nd

 

# 9234

 

The World Health Organization has released their 9th update to their Ebola Response Roadmap, indicating that the total number of cases is now just shy of 10,000 infections.  There are, of course, significant gaps in surveillance and reporting, and so these numbers are likely to be a substantial undercount.

 

Below I’ve posted some excerpts from the 12-page PDF report.  Follow the link to read the report in its entirety.

 

SUMMARY

A total of 9936 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in five affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 19 October. A total of 4877 deaths have been reported.

The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively.
EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. All but one administrative district in Liberia and all administrative districts in Sierra Leone have now reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began. Cases of EVD transmission remain lowest in Guinea, but case numbers are still very high in absolute terms. Transmission remains intense in the capital cities of the three most affected countries. Case numbers continue to be under-reported, especially from the Liberian capital Monrovia.

Of the countries with localized transmission, both Spain and the United States continue to monitor potential contacts. On 21 October the single patient with EVD in Spain tested negative for the disease for a second time. Spain will be declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test unless a new case arises during that period.

On 22 October 2014, WHO convened the third Emergency Committee on Ebola under the International Health Regulations (2005).

<SNIP>

HEALTH-CARE WORKERS

A total of 443 health-care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 19 October. 244 HCWs have died (table 2). WHO is undertaking extensive investigations to determine the cause of infection in each case. Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care. Infection prevention and control quality assurance checks are now underway at every Ebola treatment unit in the three intense-transmission countries. At the same time, exhaustive efforts are ongoing to ensure an ample supply of optimal personal protective equipment to all Ebola treatment facilities, along with the provision of training and relevant guidelines to ensure that all HCWs are exposed to the minimum possible level of risk.

(Continue . . . )

WHO Ebola Response Roadmap Update #7 – Oct 8th

 

# 9164

 

With the dual caveats that data acquisition from the affected countries is far from reliable,  and that other estimates suggest the actual numbers could be 2 to 3 times higher than the `official counts’, we’ve the latest grim set of figures from the World Health Organization on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

 

To date more than 8,000 suspected or confirmed cases have been recorded, including 3858 deaths.  Among healthcare workers, the toll continues to rise, with more than 400 infected, and more than 230 deaths.

 

What follows are just a few excerpts from a 10-page PDF report.

 

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report 8 October 2014

The total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported up to the end of 5 October 2014 (epidemiological week 40) is 8033 with 3879 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America. A confirmed case of EVD has been reported in Spain1, but because the case was confirmed during the week ending 12 October (epidemiological week 41), information on this case will be included in the next Ebola Response Roadmap update.

The past week has seen a continuation of recent trends: the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. Problems with data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia. There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control, though there is evidence of a decline in incidence in the districts of Lofa in Liberia, and Kailahun and Kenema in Sierra Leone.

Healthcare Workers infected and/or killed.

WHO Ebola Response Roadmap – Sept 24th

 

# 9010

The World Health Organization has released their fifth weekly detailed Ebola Response Roadmap, and the trends continue to show the situation in Liberia and Sierra Leone to be dire.  Although the last reporting week shows a modest drop in the number of new cases, the WHO believes this to be a reporting artifact, and not a true reflection of conditions on the ground.

 

Of additional concern, a fresh analysis shows that the number of healthcare workers infected (and killed) by the Ebola virus is higher than previously reported – particularly in Sierra Leone.   The WHO adds that:

 

It is important to emphasize that the additional HCW infections and deaths occurred throughout the course of the outbreak. Any cases of EVD in HCWs are of great concern, but there is currently no evidence to suggest a recent increase in the incidence of infections of HCWs.

As bad as the latest numbers are (6242 cases, 2909 deaths) there continues to be sizable gaps in both surveillance and reporting from the region, and the true extent and burden of this epidemic are not well defined.  In Liberia – despite some apparent reporting problems this week – the number of new cases reported over the past 21 days (n=1707)  represents more than half of all of the cases reported to date.

 

And while we tally Ebola cases and fatalities, uncounted are those that fall into the `collateral damage’ category; including the  9 Ebola Aid workers who were murdered, others who have been injured or killed providing aid or as a result of the lockdowns, and countless more denied basic medical care because many hospitals in these countries have essentially collapsed.

The full extent of this tragedy may never be fully known, and that impact is only likely to grow over the next few months. Some excerpts from today’s report – but follow the link to download the full PDF.

 

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report

24 September 2014

1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION

The upward epidemic trend continues in Sierra Leone and most probably also in Liberia. However, the situation in Guinea, although still of grave concern, appears to have stabilized: between 75 and 100 new confirmed cases have been reported in each of the past five week.

GUINEA
The situation in Guinea remains stable, with between 82 and 102 new confirmed and probable cases reported in each of the past five weeks (figure 2). Unlike the capitals of Liberia and Sierra Leone, transmission in the Guinean capital, Conakry, remains stable and moderate, with 3–15 newly reported cases each week. In Gueckedou, which was the origin of the outbreak, between 10 and 20 cases have been reported in each of the previous 30 weeks. Macenta, which borders Gueckedou, has continued to report a high number of new cases (37–70) for the past five weeks.

LIBERIA
The fall in the number of new cases shown in figure 1 is largely attributable to a sharp drop in the number of confirmed new cases reported from Liberia. Notably, there were no new reported confirmed cases from the capital, Monrovia, which in previous weeks has reported a surge in cases. These data differ from credible reports obtained from responders in Liberia, who indicate a deterioration of the situation in the country, and in Monrovia in particular. In addition, there have been a large number of suspected new cases (and deaths among suspected cases) reported from Liberia over the past week, which are not included in Figure 1, but are set out in table 1.

It is very likely that a substantial proportion of these suspected cases are genuine cases of EVD, and that the reported fall in confirmed cases reflects delays in matching laboratory results with clinical surveillance data. Efforts are being made to urgently address this problem, and it is likely that the figures will be revised upwards in due course. At the present time, the numbers of probable and suspected cases, together with those confirmed, may be a more accurate reflection of case numbers in Liberia. An upward revision of the figures, particularly confirmed cases, is likely to follow in due course. Elsewhere in the country, there continues to be an increase in the number of newly reported cases in Grand Bassa and Nimba. The number of new cases in Lofa, which borders Gueckedou in Guinea, had been falling in previous weeks, but that fall has now been arrested with a slight increase in cases compared with the previous week

SIERRA LEONE

Nationally, the situation in Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate, with an increase in the number of new confirmed cases reported over each of the past five weeks. The increase is driven primarily by a sharp increase in the number of newly reported cases in the capital, Freetown. The neighbouring districts of Port Loko, Bombali, and Moyamba have also reported increases in the numbers of cases over the past four to five weeks. The numbers of newly reported cases in Kailahun and Kenema, which have previously been stable or slowly declining, have fallen over the past week, though further investigation will be required to confirm whether this fall is genuine. Cases and deaths found during the three-day house-to-house Ebola sensitization campaign, which came to an end on 21 September, are not yet included in official data.

HEALTH-CARE WORKERS

A recent retrospective investigation of EVD cases from throughout the course of the outbreak in Sierra Leone indicated that the number of health-care workers (HCWs) infected was higher than previously reported.

 

The situation in Nigeria and Senegal remain stable, with no new cases reported in Port Harcourt since September 1st.   The second (unrelated) Ebola outbreak in the DRC appears to be under control.

 

ANNEX 2. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

As at 21 September 2014, there have been 68 cases (28 confirmed, 26 probable, 14 suspected) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 41 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.

432 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 488 contacts currently being monitored, 468 (96%) were seen on 21 September, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.

WHO Ebola Roadmap Update – Sept 18th

 

 

# 9091

Although it has been two days since their last update, today’s Ebola roadmap appears to only add one day’s worth of data to the case count tally, with a jump of 372 cases between September 13th and 14th.

 

Deaths over the same period jumped by 167 cases.

 

The good news is that the situations in both Nigeria and Senegal appear to have stabilized, with no new cases reported in the month of September.  Several hundred contacts of cases are still under observation.

 

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report

18 September 2014

OVERVIEW

The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases (see Annex 2) in the current outbreak of
Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa was 5335, with 2622 deaths, as at the end of 14 September 2014
(table 1). Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 below shows
the total number of cases by country that have been reported in each epidemiological week between the
start of 30 December 2013 (start of epidemiological week 1) and end 14 September 2014 (epidemiological
week 37: 8 to 14 September).

 

 

Although unrelated to the West African Ebola outbreak, the following update on the DRC Ebola outbreaks is also included:

 

ANNEX 1. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

As at 15 September 2014, there have been 71 cases (53 confirmed and probable, 18 suspected) of Ebolavirus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In total, 40 deaths have been reported. 11% of cases have occurred among health-care workers have been diagnosed with EVD. 95% of 403 listed contacts were seen on 15 September. This outbreak is unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.

WHO Ebola Response Roadmap Update – Sept 16th

 

 

# 9082

The World Health Organization has published a new update on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.  I’ve only posted some excerpts, follow the link to read the 4 page document in its entirety.

 

 

 

WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE

16 September 2014

Following  the  roadmap  structure,  country  reports  fall  into  two  categories:  those  with  widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and those with an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal)
.
A  second  meeting  of  the  Emergency  Committee  convened  by  the  Director-General  under  the International  Health  Regulations  (2005)  [IHR  (2005)]  regarding  the  2014  Ebola  outbreak  in  West Africa will begin discussion via email this week. The meeting will review the status of the outbreak as a  public  health  emergency  of  international  concern,  and  assess  the  impact  of  current  temporary measures to contain the outbreak and reduce international spread.

1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION

4963  (probable, confirmed and suspected; see Annex 1) cases and  2453  deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease as at 13 September 2014 by the Ministries of Health of Guinea and Sierra Leone, and as at 9 September by the Ministry of Health of Liberia.

Table 1: Probable, confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone

There  are  several  points  to  be  considered  when  interpreting  epidemiological  data  for  the  Ebola outbreak. Many of the deaths attributed to Ebola virus in this outbreak occurred in people who were suspected, but not confirmed, to have died from the disease. Ebola cases are only confirmed when a sample  tests  positive in  the  laboratory.  If  samples  taken  from  a  body  test  negative  for  Ebola,  that person is no longer counted among Ebola deaths and the figures are adjusted accordingly. However, because laboratory services and treatment centres are currently overwhelmed in several countries, the  numbers  of  probable  and  suspected  cases,  together  with  those  confirmed,  may  be  a  more accurate reflection of case numbers. Work is also ongoing to resolve discrepancies between different sources of data, which may lead to a revision of the numbers of cases and deaths in the future.

(Continue . . . )

 

WHO Ebola Roadmap: SitRep # 3

The Epi Curve from hell – Monrovia

 

# 9068

 

Today the World Health Organization has published their third Ebola Roadmap Situation Report, which continues to show the Ebola epidemic spiraling out of control in Western Africa.   The WHO also held a press briefing this morning (which I confess, I’ve not had time to listen to) with even more current numbers.  You’ll find the audio link below:

 

12 September 2014 virtual press briefing on support to Ebola affected countries and the Cuban Government commitment to help control the outbreak in west Africa

Speakers: Dr Margaret Chan, WHO Director- General and Dr Roberto Morales Ojeda, Minister of Public Health, Cuba.

• Audio of the press briefing
  mp3, 62 Mb, [01:17:00]

 

 

I’ve only excerpted a portion of the SitRep, Follow the link to read the entire 7-page PDF file.

 

 

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report 3

12 September 2014

This is the third in a series of regular situation reports on the Ebola Response Roadmap1. The report contains a review of the epidemiological situation, and an assessment of the response measured against the core Roadmap indicators where available. Additional indicators will be reported as data are consolidated.

The data contained in this report are based on the best information available. Substantial efforts are ongoing to improve the availability and accuracy of information about both the epidemiological situation and the implementation of the response.

Following the roadmap structure, country reports fall into three categories: those with widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); those with an initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal); and those countries that neighbour areas of active transmission (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Senegal).

OVERVIEW

The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was 4366, with 2218 deaths, as at 7 September 2014 (see table 1). Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 below shows the total number of cases by country that have been reported between the start of 30 December 2013 (epidemiological week 1) and end 7 September 2014 (epidemiological week 36).

1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION

There has been no indication of any down-turn in the epidemic in the three countries that have widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone), with a surge in new cases in Liberia a particular cause for concern (see table 1). Transmission is continuing in urban areas, with the surge in Liberia being driven primarily by a sharp increase in the number of cases reported in the capital, Monrovia.

The figures below show the numbers of confirmed and probable new cases over time in each of the countries with widespread and intense transmission, accompanied by numbers of cases over time in capital cities. For Liberia, it is notable that the proportion of suspected cases that result in death is high (211 deaths from 453 suspected cases; 47%), which suggests that many of the suspected cases are in fact genuine cases.

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