NOTE: Updated 2010-2011 Flu Vaccine Information is available at:
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Since it takes roughly six months to create, manufacture, test, and `fill and finish’ enough flu vaccine for the upcoming flu season scientists must decide now what flu strains they expect to dominate next fall.
Accordingly, each February and September the World Health Organization meets in a technical session to review the flu strains currently circulating around the world and to make recommendations for the makeup of the next season’s flu vaccine.
Manufacturers then go to work producing the upcoming season’s stockpile while scientists and doctors cross their fingers and hope they guessed right. As we saw last year with the sudden introduction of novel H1N1, a lot can happen during those six months.
Today the WHO has announced their recommendations for next fall’s flu shots for the Northern Hemisphere. As you might expect, they expect novel H1N1 to be a major component of the next flu season.
Here then is a summary of their recommendations followed by a link to the full report.
Recommended viruses for influenza vaccines for use in the 2010-2011 northern hemisphere influenza season
It is recommended that the following viruses be used for influenza vaccines in the 2010-2011 influenza season (northern hemisphere):
— an an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)-like virus;
— an an A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)-like virus;*
— a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like virus.
* A/Wisconsin/15/2009 is an A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)-like virus and is a 2010 southern hemisphere vaccine virus.
For more information- Recommended viruses for influenza vaccines for use in the 2010-2011 northern hemisphere influenza season - full report [pdf 56kb]
With large stockpiles of unused H1N1 vaccine (most of which has an expected shelf life of at least another 12 months), countries will have to decide how to order and dispense the vaccine in the fall.
Possibilities include:
- In some cases, nations with large stockpiles of `unfilled’ H1N1 antigen may be able to combine that surplus with the newly produced H3 and B antigens to produce a trivalent shot.
- Others nations may decide to go with two shots again, instead of one, and order a bivalent (H3/B) vaccine to go along with their existing H1N1 shots.
- Nations without a stockpile of novel H1N1 vaccine will need a new trivalent vaccine.
- And it is even possible that some nations will have go with a combination of the choices above.
All of which adds up to another complicated influenza vaccine manufacturing season ahead.
