# 5718
This morning an area of disturbed weather which meteorologists have been watching for several days has moved into an area of the Caribbean where conditions now favor its development into a tropical system.
The National Hurricane Center, at 8am, issued the following statement:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
The computer models are a bit of a mess right now, since the system is not yet well defined. Most show the system moving into the Western Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, possibly posing a threat Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana by the weekend.
Regardless of what this system does, we have more than four months left to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and predictions (see NOAA Issues 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) are calling for:
- 12 to 18 named storms
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
Which means that if you haven’t already done so, this week is the perfect time to review your family and/or business disaster plan.
To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.
