T.S. Ana Threatens North & South Carolina Coastline

 

 

# 10,027

 

It’s still three weeks till the Atlantic Tropical Storm season officially kicks off (June 1st),  but subtropical storm Ana transitioned into a full-fledged tropical storm overnight and ramped up its winds to a respectable 60 MPH sustained, as it slowly saunters off the Southeastern coastline.

 

Landfall should come Sunday morning, somewhere near the North/South Carolina boarder, but tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, and some coastal flooding are likely to begin to be felt today and tonight.

 

While not a particularly large or powerful storm, local interests should monitor the storm on the NHC website, and follow all instructions offered by their local Office of Emergency Management.   If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov. 

 

This is the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center:

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

...ANA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

We’ll be participating, as we do every year, in National Hurricane Preparedness Week later in the the month, but Ana’s early arrival serves to illustrate the value of always being prepared for the unexpected. If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

Tropical Storm Karen Aims For Gulf Coast

 

# 7832

 

 

It’s been an unusually quiet tropical season, but this morning the NHC upgraded an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean to tropical storm status, and expects it to move towards the northern Gulf coast over the next 72 hours.

 

While unlikely to be a strong hurricane, weak hurricanes and  tropical storms can prove formidable depending upon their speed, rainfall rates, and the geography of the coast where they come ashore.  In addition to potential flooding, and high winds, small twisters are often reported with landfalling tropical systems.

 

If you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, today would be a good day to review your hurricane plans, and to make any last minute preparations.  If you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.

 

This from the National Hurricane Center.

 

WTNT32 KNHC 031304
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

NOAA: Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Expected

The peak of the hurricane season is still ahead - Photo Credit NOAA

# 7553

 

Although the first two months of the 2013 Altantic Tropical season have been fairly uneventful (4 tropical storms, no hurricanes), there are still four months left to go, and NOAA continues to see conditions ripe for an above-average tropical season.

 

Earlier this month, we saw similar predictions from Colorado State University’s Dr. William Gray: August Hurricane Forecast Update.

 

Here is the latest prediction from NOAA.

 

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

 

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

 

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

(Continue . . . )

 

If you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.

 

For more on hurricane preparedness you may wish to revisit:

 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

Storm Surge Monday

National Hurricane Preparedness Week – Day 1

Watching The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend

 

 

# 6399

 

 

For a year that has been predicted to have near-normal tropical activity (see NOAA: `Near Normal’ Hurricane Season Predicted), the Atlantic basin has gotten off to a pretty fast start.

 

The month of May saw the formation of two pre-season tropical storms (Alberto & Beryl). While Alberto stayed out to seas, Beryl paid a visit to northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Hurricane (now demoted to a tropical storm) Chris has been meandering across the high latitudes of the Altantic over the past week, affecting only shipping.

 

Now, barely into the third week June, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching an area just off the Yucatan peninsula that they give a high chance of becoming the 4th named storm of this very young tropical season.

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICALDEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

 

Forecast models at this stage of the game – before a well defined center of circulation forms – are usually pretty vague, and not terribly reliable. As you can see by this morning’s computer runs, everyone from Texas to Florida needs to keep an eye on this system.

 

Credit SWFTMD

 

Intensity models are even more problematic, but there is ample heat energy in the warm gulf waters to feed a respectable tropical storm or even a hurricane.

 

All of which means that residents all along the gulf coast need to be examining their hurricane preparedness plans while they keep their eye on this system.

 

 

Over the last month I’ve run a number of Hurricane preparedness blogs in concert with National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  You may wish to revisit one of the following as you review your own preparations.

 

Prepping For Pets

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Taking Action

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Storm Surge Monday

 

For the latest tropical updates, visit the National Hurricane Center website. You can also follow the NHC on twitter at @NHC_Atlantic.

Roll Out The Beryl

 

 

# 6347

 

 

As predicted by the NHC, overnight the disturbed area off the eastern seaboard has coalesced into sub-tropical storm Beryl, and is forecasted to impact the Northern Florida – Southern Georgia coastline late tomorrow.

 

Unlike a classic tropical storm, sub-tropical storms tend to have their heaviest winds and storms some distance from the center. Sub-tropical storms can sometimes transition into tropical storms.

 

Tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, and a surge tide of 1 to 3 feet is currently forecast, and residents along the coast and inland are being urged to monitor the storm and prepare for its effects.

For the latest updates, visit the National Hurricane Center website. You can follow the NHC on twitter at @NHC_Atlantic.

 

 

Beryl’s expected arrival tomorrow coincides with the first day of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and if nothing else, should serve a good reminder of the value of preparedness.

 

To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

T.S. Maria: Watches & Warnings Raised

 

# 5827

 

Although Maria remains a minimal tropical storm, warnings and watches have now been issued for the BVI and Puerto Rico.

 

From the NHC 8am Advisory:

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

*ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT... NEVIS...SAINT KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES... THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

 

 

Maria is expected to begin slow intensification after passing Puerto Rico, and could be at hurricane strength early next week. It is too soon to tell if Maria will affect the mainland of the United States.

 

Nevertheless, we are in the heart of hurricane season, and so everyone should have their emergency plan and preparations already in place.

 

For more on how to go about doing that, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.

They Call This Wind Maria

 

 

# 5820

 

 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami upgraded tropical depression 14 – located far out in the Atlantic – to a Tropical Storm this morning naming it Maria.

 

Its forecast track is expected bring it near the upper Leeward Islands as a tropical storm in about 3 days, and while intensity models are not particularly aggressive, it could be threatening Puerto Rico by Sunday and the Bahamas early in the week.

 

 

Meanwhile Hurricane Katia is headed out to sea, and a third area of disturbed weather located in the extreme Southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico is being watched for development.

 

 

We’ll have a much better idea of where Maria will go, and how strong she may become, after this system clears the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

 

Interests in Florida, the Bahamas, and along the Gulf coast and Atlantic seaboard, should stay on top of this storm’s progress and make sure their hurricane plans and preparations are in order.

 

As always, the National Hurricane Center website should be your primary source of forecast information, but if you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov for the latest Emergency information.

T.S. Warnings Up For The Northern Gulf

 

 

 

# 5805

 

Although the area of disturbed weather in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico ranks still as a tropical depression, forecasters believe it may strengthen to a tropical storm later today as it plods slowly and erratically north towards the coast.

 

 

Overnight  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency and the National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm warnings from Sabine Pass, Texas eastward to Pascagoula, Mississippi.

 

These tropical storm warnings include the city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

 

Although strong T.S. force winds are possible along the coast, the big threat right now appears to be inland flooding from the expected heavy rains that will be produced by this slow moving system. 

 

The NHC warns:

 

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

 

Tropical storms don’t get the kind of respect that hurricanes do from the press or the public, but they have a history of causing significant damage and loss of life.

 

A prime example would be T.S. Alllison, which struck Texas and the Gulf coast 10 years ago, dumping as much as 35 inches of rain, killing 41 people, flooding 70,000 homes, and causing 5.5 billion dollars in damages as she lingered for days.

 

Meanwhile, in the mid-Atlantic, Tropical Storm Katia continues on a northwestward course that should take it north of the island, but may adopt a more westerly turn in a couple of days.

 

 

It is too soon to know what threat, if any, Katia will pose to land.

 

With the exception of Irene, the U.S. mainland has been pretty lucky this year, but the Atlantic Hurricane season is only half over. Historically September and October are the busiest months of the season, and so we’ve a long way to go.

 

Photo Credit- NOAA

 

Reason enough make whatever preparations you can now, before a storm threatens you, your family, or your business.  Which is why the month of September is designated National Preparedness Month.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

August Tropical Climatology

 

 

 

# 5727

 

Although August is still one day away, it appears likely that the 5th named tropical system of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season is about to form about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands.

 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has this area of disturbed weather listed as having a high chance – nearly 100% - of forming into a depression or storm in the next 48 hours. 

 

From the looks of the latest satellite photos, that may yet happen today.

 

 

 

The 8am EST tropical outlook states:

IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

 

It is a little too soon to project where this storm will go, as hurricane computer models don’t really initialize well until the storm’s circulation matures.

 

Early guidance, however, suggests that beyond the Windward & Leeward Islands . . . Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas need to be paying close attention. 

 

 

August is when the Atlantic hurricane season really begins to pick up steam, and that trend usually peaks in mid-September. 

 

 

Compare the areas of origin and typical hurricane tracks in these two maps (below) showing July and August, and you will see a considerable amount of difference.

 

 

You’ll notice that the system we are watching is just now entering the  orange `Most Likely’ area of development east of the Windward Islands.   

 

As the summer progresses the spawning grounds for Hurricanes moves further east into the warming Atlantic ocean. It isn’t until August and September that the Cape Verde basin begins to produce what often turn into very large and persistent hurricanes.

 

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s  Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

 

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

 

Last year there were some significant changes in how the NHC will advise us on hurricanes.   Some of the (excerpted) highlights include:

 

Watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years.

• Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours.
• Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.

 

The second official information source you should have bookmarked is your local Office of Emergency Management.  Here you’ll be able to access local warnings, flood maps and evacuation information.

 

To find it, you can Google or Yahoo search with your county/parish name and the words `Emergency Management’.   Below you’ll find a screenshot of the entry page to my county’s page.

 

 

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov.

 

NOAA’s NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami also has a Facebook page, where you can keep up with the latest tropical developments.

 

 

Of course, knowing about an approaching storm isn’t enough.  You need to be prepared as well.

 

Since last May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, this blog devoted considerable time to the subject.  A few of my blogs on hurricane preparedness included:

 

National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2011

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

How Not To Be Gone With The Wind

Getting SLOSHed For Hurricane Season

 

With the busiest two months of the hurricane season about to begin, if you haven’t already done so,  now is the right time to make preparations.

One On The Way, Another To Watch

 

 

 

 

# 5725

 

Tropical storm Don, with winds around 50 MPH, is moving relentlessly towards the Texas coastline, and is expect to make landfall sometime tonight.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Matagorda. 

 

Residents should be making preparations for heavy rains, high winds, and possible flooding conditions.

The 7am (CST) intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center states:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF DON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami will issue their next complete advisory at 10am CST. You can also follow the storm’s progress on twitter by following @NHC_Altantic.

Meanwhile, as might be expected this time of year, we’ve another area of disturbed weather to keep an eye on situated well east of the Leeward islands that shows some potential for development.

Designated INVEST 91, early models have it continuing on a generally WNW course for the next several days, bringing it near the Leeward islands in 3 or 4 days time. 

Which means that if you haven’t already done so, now is the perfect time to review your family and/or business disaster plan.  

To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.

Watching The Tropics

 

 

# 5718

 

This morning an area of disturbed weather which meteorologists have been watching for several days has moved into an area of the Caribbean where conditions now favor its development into a tropical system.

 

The National Hurricane Center, at 8am, issued the following statement:

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING  THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

 

The computer models are a bit of a mess right now, since the system is not yet well defined. Most show the system moving into the Western Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, possibly posing a threat Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana by the weekend.

 

 

 

Regardless of what this system does, we have more than four months left to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and predictions (see NOAA Issues 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) are calling for:

• 12 to 18 named storms 
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)

 

Which means that if you haven’t already done so, this week is the perfect time to review your family and/or business disaster plan.

 

To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.

 

Arlene: First Tropical Storm of the 2011 Atlantic Season

 

 

# 5662

 

With only a short distance of open water to traverse before reaching the Mexican coastline, T.S. Arlene (named last night) is unlikely to reach hurricane intensity before it makes landfall tomorrow.

 

It should, however, prove to be a significant rainmaker as it slowly moves westward.

 

 

Some excerpts from the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’s  7am (CST) advisory:

 

WTNT31 KNHC 291147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

<SNIP>

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST.  ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

 

While posing a minimal threat to the residents along the Mexican coastline, Arlene is a solid reminder that the tropical season is upon us.

 

All residents living within several hundred miles of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should make advance preparations to deal with these storms.

 

For more on Hurricane Preparedness you may wish to revisit:

 

National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2011

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

How Not To Be Gone With The Wind

Getting SLOSHed For Hurricane Season

The 2011 Tropical Preparedness Guide

 

 

# 5222

 

 

The Atlantic Tropical storm season is still 74 days away (although tropical systems occasionally form prior to June 1st), and so hurricanes are probably not high on most people’s list of things to consider today.

 

Still, it is never too early to begin to prepare for a serious weather event. After all, spring is also tornado and flood season across much of the United States, and the world.

 

With that in mind, this week NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.

 

 

 

Although only 12 pages in length, this colorful PDF file packs a lot of clear, concise information on tropical storms and the threats they contain; winds, floods, surge tides, and tornadoes.

 

Three pages deal with preparedness issues, including supplies checklists and details on creating a family emergency plan.

 

 

Well worth downloading and reviewing today.

Yasi Makes Landfall On Queensland Coast

 

 

 

# 5580

 

(colorized IR photo: Credit NOAA)

Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasi comes ashore on the Queensland coast.

 

You can watch a video report on 9 News here.

 

 

This is a monster storm, and damage is likely to be very heavy.