# 6263
Yesterday (Apr. 4th) Professor William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released their updated 2012 Extended-Range Hurricane Forecast for the Atlantic Tropical basin.
And while these yearly forecasts are not always on target - as a resident of the Gulf Coast of Florida – I’m admittedly a little relieved to see that this year they are calling for a below-average hurricane season.
But one need only remember that 1992, a year when Dr. Gray and his team predicted (quite correctly) a lower-than-average hurricane season, was the year that Category Five Hurricane Andrew slammed into south Florida, inflicting horrific damage to Homestead and surrounding areas.
It may sound like a cliché, but it is absolutely true.
It only takes one. . . .
The past couple of years have seen an above-average number of Atlantic tropical storms, yet most of these intense storms remained out to sea, sparing the coastlines of the United States.
Yesterday’s forecast (see below) will be updated again in early June, but for now these researchers are predicting:
We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high.We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
(as of 4 April 2012)
By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray
The full 42-page PDF file, giving their rationale, and more detailed forecasts can be downloaded here.
Their analysis of the impact that global warming may (or may not) be having on the Atlantic’s hurricane activity is also quite interesting.
As you can see from the map below, between 1920-1965 – at a time when the earth was going through a general cooling trend – the number of major hurricanes impacting the eastern United states was three times greater than during the last 46 (warmer) years.
The authors write:
We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures were to continue to rise.
For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days.
By contrast, in a similar 25-year period from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 Atlantic major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many) (Figure 21). Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity do not follow global mean temperature trends.
For more on landfall probabilities, you may wish to visit:
United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project
While we will hopefully see a less active hurricane season, there are no guarantees. Now is a good time to begin to prepare for the upcoming season.
Hurricane preparedness week is in May, and NOAA has a full slate of videos available on their website to help you understand the risks, and to prepared.
