Credit CDC
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Yesterday the NEJM published a lengthy study that looked at the epidemiology of the first 139 human H7N9 cases (and nearly 2,700 contacts), that reaffirms what the World Health Organization, China’s CDC, and our own CDC have repeatedly said regarding this virus; while there is a lot we don’t know, so far there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread.
Last night Robert Roos summarized this report on CIDRAP NEWS, which you can read at the link below:
Study reaffirms that H7N9 rarely spreads person to person
Robert Roos | News Editor | CIDRAP News
A Chinese study suggests that H7N9 may spread person to person only with prolonged close contact, if at all.
Feb 05, 2014
A detailed epidemiologic study of the first 9 months of the H7N9 avian flu outbreak in China reinforces the image of the illness as one that rarely spreads from person to person but may possibly do so when there is prolonged, close contact between the sick and the healthy.
The lengthy report, released today by The New England Journal of Medicine, covers 139 human H7N9 cases recorded through November of 2013. All but 2 of the patients were hospitalized, and 47 (34%) died. More than 80% of the patients were exposed to animals, mostly poultry, before they got sick.
As we saw in 2009 with the pandemic H1N1 virus, once an influenza virus manages to achieve efficient transmission, it doesn’t take long for it to become painfully obvious. The fact that we haven’t seen hundreds of H7N9 cases show up in London, New York, Sydney, and Paris is a pretty good indicator that as a pandemic virus, H7N9 isn’t ready for prime time.
While reassuring news, influenza viruses have a history of changing over time. And so while this virus isn’t currently spreading efficiently, there are no guarantees about its behavior tomorrow or next week.
As Lisa Schnirring wrote last night, also on CIDRAP News, the daily parade of new human cases from Easter China continues, as do concerns over the geographic spread of the virus.
No H7N9 letup as Guangxi detections prompt warning
Lisa Schnirring | Staff Writer | CIDRAP News
Feb 05, 2014
China reported nine new H7N9 influenza cases today, including the third from Guangxi province, signaling a rise in disease activity in a region that borders Vietnam along with the first reports of poultry market detections there, according to a warning today from an animal health group.
The other eight new cases are from two provinces—Guangdong and Zhejiang—that are reporting the largest portion of cases in the second wave, which has now eclipsed the first wave by a growing margin. So far 174 cases have been reported in the outbreak's second wave, compared to 136 recorded during the first spike in disease activity last spring.
