# 8645
While MERS has garnered most of our attention these past few weeks, it is important to note that we continue to see sporadic, and widely scattered, cases of H7N9 infection popping up in Eastern China as well.
Hong Kong’s CHP has released their latest Avian Influenza report (Avian Influenza Report (Volume 10, Number 20 (Week 20)), which cites 5 new cases reported over the past reporting week.
During this reporting period, 5 confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) were reported by the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC). The cases were from Guangdong (3), Hunan (1) and Jiangsu (1). Since March 2013 (as of May 17, 2014), there were a total of 441 cases reported.
By this time last year (week 20, 2013), cases had all but vanished (see ECDC chart below), and did not pick up again until the fall. We’ll be watching to see if this summer is a repeat of that pattern, or if we continue to see scattered cases.
In comparison, this year’s H7N9 outbreaks started earlier, and peaked sooner than in 2013. Early closure of wet markets last January and February no doubt limited the spread.
H7N9, H5N1, and the new upstart avian viruses like H10N8, H5N6, and H6N1 are all potential public health threats. They may very well simmer quietly for years or even decades, only occasionally bubbling up with a human infection here or there, or at some point one of them may further adapt to humans, and spark an epidemic.
Likewise, two years ago all eyes were on an array of variant swine influenza viruses (see A Variant Swine Flu Review) that were spreading from county and state fairs into the population. They failed to return in any serious way last year, but once again, the summer fair season lies ahead, and they could once again be players.
While none of these emerging viruses may ever rise to the level of a global public health concern, and we may well be blindsided someday by a pathogen not currently on our radar, these threats are a reminder that nature’s lab is open 24/7, and is not constrained by budget cuts, politics, or a social conscience .
Given enough time – the odds favor seeing another pandemic. The only real question is when.
