Sunday, March 01, 2015

HK’s Imported H7N9 Case Dies, Seasonal Flu Continues Strong



# 9769


As the City of Hong Kong struggles with a particularly severe H3N2 flu season, its 3rd imported H7N9 case of the winter (and 13th overall) has reportedly died in a local hospital a week after his case was announced.  Of the two other H7N9 cases imported into Hong Kong this season, one has recovered while the other remains hospitalized in critical condition.

H7N9 bird flu infected man dead

Sing Tao Daily 

Had earlier to the mainland, after his return confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in 61-year-old man, extended to 6:30 am dead. Food and Health Secretary Ko Wing-man, said most H7N9 cases in Hong Kong imported from mainland China appealed to the public when the areas affected by avian influenza to be alert.

Last month, the patient twice to Zhangmutou, and go to the market to buy two chickens have been slaughtered, after returning discomfort, admitted to Queen Mary Hospital intensive care unit, extended to 6:35 this morning, where he died.

(Continue . . . )

Of the 602 H7N9 known cases reported by the World Health Organization as of February 23rd, 227 deaths have been reported, yielding an impressive 37% fatality rate.  

But the real CFR (case fatality rate) is likely far lower, as only the `sickest of the sick are likely to be hospitalized, tested, and identified as carrying the virus.  And those people who are sick enough to be hospitalized are also more likely to succumb.


If we could factor in the mild or moderate cases that never get counted, but recover on their own, that sky-high CFR would probably drop precipitously. 


But even a 10-fold drop in mortality would leave us with a very daunting flu, comparable to the 1918 pandemic.


Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s seasonal flu continues unabated, and their Centre for Health Protection has published a YTD report showing its impact.  


Thus far, seasonal flu has claimed at least 307 lives in Hong Kong this winter.  To put that in perspective, last year 133 deaths were reported – and this year’s flu season is far from over.


Update on severe seasonal influenza cases (As of 1 March, 2015, 12 noon)



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