ARE WE GETTING CLOSER?
Reports out of Azerbaijan and the former soviet republic of Georgia are deeply disturbing. Testing and reporting from Nigeria is non-existent. Indonesia continues to percolate, and Turkey and China are less than forthcoming with information. Egypt now has 4 human cases, and Israel is slaughtering fowl.
The WHO now reports that the virus has developed into two distinct strains. Each are mutating as they spread around the world. Each (or both) has the potential to turn into a pandemic. There are probably more strains, but countries like China and Indonesia are withholding data.
In Georgia, 3 soldiers are in intensive care with severe respiratory problems and reported hemorrhaging from the nose. Nineteen additional soldiers are reported to be ill, with lesser symptoms. Is this H5N1? We don’t know. The reports of hemorrhage, a common symptom in H5N1, are worrisome.
In Azerbaijan, 5 are dead from Avian Flu. All from the same village, all related. Early reports indicated they did not have direct contact with infected birds. Then, a report surfaced that they may have collected feathers from dead swans. Hard to know what is true here, but the time lag between the dates each fell ill indicate they all weren’t likely infected at the same time. This is a very suspicious cluster, and may indicate Human to Human transmission.
Each day brings new reports. Human cases, bird deaths, dogs, cats, and martens. And very disturbing stories of large scale die offs of pigs in India, Nepal, and Africa. Swine can carry the influenza virus, and would make the perfect mixing bowl for the virus to mutate.
On the home front, suddenly our government is talking far more seriously about the effects of a pandemic. They are telling us not to panic. Warning the press to be responsible in their reporting. And now are trying to openly discourage the use of masks for the masses and the private acquisition of Tamiflu.
And the prospects of a vaccine, often mentioned as not being available for at least six months after a pandemic begins, seems to dim with each passing day. With two strains out there, this will make vaccine production even harder. And as the virus mutates, we could be looking at multiple pandemics over a period of time.
Some health officials are talking a year, perhaps two, after a pandemic begins before enough vaccine would be available for the masses.
So, are we closer today? It certainly feels like it. But the virus must still make a crucial mutation before it comes a human pandemic. That might never happen. Or perhaps it already has, and we don’t know yet. The odds are, we won’t be aware that it has happened until a week or two has already passed.
But I can tell you that the experts are growing more concerned, not less.
